All of Lucas L's Comments + Replies

Futuur predicts a 32% chance that GPT-4 will be released by May 2023 and a ~74% chance that it will be released by the end of 2023 (probability generated in real money).

You can use Futuur for real-money markets! Btw they are planning to have user-generated markets as well

Futuur is a prediction market with play money and real money options (each option has a different probability of some event occurring). An interesting market launched was which option would be more accurate, and real money won even with fewer bettors.


I believe markets with play money are more likely to be biased as no money is involved, with less skin in the predictions.

Cool, prediction markets will be sources of information just like GPT Chat is today! If you want to find real-money markets, you can try Futuur as Manifold only operates with play-money.


Let me know if you have any feedback/suggestions for Futuur as well, we would love to know what you think of the platform!

Thanks for the tip, I will take a look at Futuur. As for suggestions, if you want any advice on the math of latent variables in order to add them to Futuur, then I would definitely be up for it.