All of MakoYass's Comments + Replies

Mati_Roy's Shortform

Are you actually looking for the "watch later" feature..

2Mati_Roy1dNo:)
Reply to Nate Soares on Dolphins

I noticed the subtle background forces that whisper (at least to blue tribe members in their youth) "phylogenetic classification is the one true way to organize life forms", and rejected its claim.

I still can't guess why that bothers you :/ When I try to imagine the motivations of this shadowy conspiracy of elites who quietly manipulated the anglosphere into always maintaining separate concepts for fish and cetaceans, I just see a desire to teach us about how special and cool cetaceans are.

When would an agent do something different as a result of believing the many worlds theory?

Another point is that most people strongly value existence/non-existence additionally to the quality and 'probability' of existence

Mm, agreed. We're fans of quantities, rather than qualities, so I may have been underrecognizing this.

Humans clearly have special concerns about not existing at all, that extend beyond the linear concern for merely existing less. A quantum multiverse (or maybe even just a physically large multiverse, with chance recurrences) would soundly and naturally decrease a human's aversion to death, to some extent.

MikkW's Shortform

but would then go on to use the phrase to refer to parts of masculinity which are not clearly problematic

I think this is usually is a disagreement about which parts of masculinity are problematic. Their position might be really ignorant and hateful, but I think it's sincere.

Mati_Roy's Shortform

Youtube lets you access your viewing history through your "library" (or in the web version, probably it's in the sidebar)

2Mati_Roy3dthanks! yeah i know, but would like if it was more easily accessible whenever i watch a video:)
MikkW's Shortform

I wish I could figure out what factor divided people into these two language groups. For one there is toxic masculinity and there is non-toxic (or just ordinary) masculinity. For another, uttering "toxic masculinity" directly means "all masculinity is toxic". I do not know how they came apart.

1MikkW8dTo be clear, my original post referred to more than just "toxic masculinity". On that particular subject, the divergence in meaning is that some people identified a motte-and-bailey where people would say "toxic masculinity", defend the term by saying it's referring to a particular subset of masculinity that is problematic, but would then go on to use the phrase to refer to parts of masculinity which are not clearly problematic. That isn't a linguistic divergence, but some people recognizing a subtext that the original group would deny their words containing
Jemist's Shortform

You haven't really stated that she's putting all that much energy into this (implied, I guess), but I'd see nothing wrong with having a moral stance about literally everything but still prioritizing your activity in healthy ways, judging this, maybe even arguing vociferously for it, for about 10 minutes, before getting back to work and never thinking about it again.

AllAmericanBreakfast's Shortform

I don't like that one either, it usually reflects a lack of imagination. They're talking about the purposes we can think of now, they usually know nothing about the purposes we will find, once we have it, which haven't been invented yet.

MikkW's Shortform

Public funding seems especially easy to make truly democratic (proportionate to the needs of the voters, without majoritarian dynamics, additive), so it's weird to me that it took cryptocurrencies for it to start to happen.

MakoYass's Shortform

Noticing I've been operating under a bias where I notice existential risk precursors pretty easily (EG, biotech, advances in computing hardware), but I notice no precursors of existential safety. To me it is as if technologies that tend to do more good than harm, or at least, would improve our odds by their introduction, social or otherwise, do not exist. That can't be right, surely?...

When I think about what they might be... I find only cultural technologies, or political conditions: the strength of global governance, the clarity of global discourses, per... (read more)

4ChristianKl8dSome biotech contributes to existential risk but others doesn't. A lot of vaccine technology doesn't increase existential risk but reduces it because of reduced danger from viruses. Phage therapy is the same for reducing the risk from infectious bacteria. LessWrong itself is a form of technology that's intended to lead to existential risk reduction by facillitating a knowledge community to exist that otherwise wouldn't. The general idea of CFAR is that social technology they developed like double crux helps people to think more clearly and thus reduce existential risk.
We should probably buy ADA?

The reason to call it "Hydra" is that the scaling solution works by "growing" "heads". It is very hydra-like in its behavior. It might have been named before the marketplace was a (visible) thing? (They may have been developing it for a while)

We should probably buy ADA?

It can be argued that in many contracts, they actually wouldn't want use the native coin, because the unpredictable changes (or increases, even if it is always an increase) makes them unsuitable for most uses. For instance, say you'd made a bet with someone about something that's only going to resolve a year later. You want to know how much you're betting, but if you bet in a native coin, you really don't know how much a given quantity of that is going to be worth. The problem also comes up for contracts that use fines or collateral. That covers most contr... (read more)

We should probably buy ADA?

And I cannot really stand the (probably good intended) paternalism

Finance is basically the least paternalistic way of helping people, pretty much everything they're doing leaves all of the decisions about how it will be used to Ethiopia, Ethiopian developers, and the end-users.

We should probably buy ADA?

I don't see why doing this in a formal academic setting would be significantly better.

I don't know how to help you.

We should probably buy ADA?

If it happens before cardano's smart contracts come online, my prediction is that cardano will only come back if it wins the scaling race (hydra vs eth sharding).

The thing is, it looks like eth pos wont come for a while. That, I think, is the crux. If we can develop more certainty about that claim, we'll know how to bet.

8ChristianKl20dThis assumes that Cardano and Ethereum are the only contenders. At the moment Polkadot already has both developed smart contracts and a lot more scaleability. Polkadot manages to do 3000 TPS which is 200X of Ethereum or 10X of Cardano. In addition parachains for more scalling are in the process of being rolled out on Kursuma (Pokadot's second test with 3 billion$ market cap) for even more scalling. Important features such as a bridge to Ethereum are already worked on for Polkadot and might come online this year, so there's some way to access Ethereum services when you need them for your application.
We should probably buy ADA?

Good questions. (Aside from the one about Hydra. I don't think many potential investors are going to google hydra and then confuse a dark market for a scaling solution. I don't think many of them are going to google hydra in the first place and I think the ones who do will know the class of object they're looking for. An aside, they also named their development suite "Plutus", which another crypto project has tried to claim, but I've never heard of that project before and might never hear of it again and don't remember what it was.)

I wouldn't trust most pe... (read more)

4ChristianKl20dThe issue isn't simply about confusion but about well-thought out naming choices. I don't see any good reason to use the name. Hydra has 600% year over year growth and there's a good chance that it will be talked about a lot more in 2-3 years. Some people and broadly invested and have spread their investment over multiple different projects. I would consider those to be more impartial then the founder of a project.
We should probably buy ADA?

My stance on how long it's taken for them to deliver smart contracts depends on when they said they would deliver smart contracts. Are they long past a previously stated deadline? Or did they expect the preliminary formal work to take this long? If they expected it to take this long (or like, 2.5 years), and still decided to do the formal work, that would be a credible signal that they really believe it's that important and I would be moved by it. Otherwise, cause for concern.

We should probably buy ADA?

Why would you need smart contracts for publishing? (rather than just file-sharing or a p2p web.) I can/have thought of mechanisms in that area, but I'm curious as to what you had in mind.

I agree with what you're saying, but that's still an abstract potential rather than a killer app.

2ChristianKl20dYou don't need smart contracts for publishing but you do need some way to publish a list of documents or the hashes of the list of documents. A blockchain is an easy way to publish IPFS addresses of articles. If you want something like verifying that articles are correct you could it's very hard to do that without smart contracts and interfacing with a service like Kleros.
We should probably buy ADA?

Social recovery is presumably going to be optional, I can't really see a way they could make it non-optional. But I agree that it's probably impossible to design a system that would work for the sorts of people who would be betrayed in the worst possible way by a quorum of their closest friends and family.

Good approximate solutions to recurring problems are generally quite useful to have.

We should probably buy ADA?

It's quite hard to make money investing if you can never develop enough confidence in your reasoning to sometimes disagree with the outside view. The outside view is already priced in.

I agree about Cardano being a good refuge for anyone fleeing foundational security issues.

How might cryptocurrencies affect AGI timelines?

I should probably mention Ben Goertzel's SingularityNet, a marketplace for AI services that's being built on the Cardano platform.

Ben seems to think that this is the kind of environment in which AGI will arise, and that decentralizing it will help the odds of keeping the AGI aligned with the interests of its owners. This completely fails to connect with any of my intuitions about how AGI will be built, nor any of my intuitions about the alignment problem, but Ben has been into AGI for a very long time (He created the term "AGI", (with consultation from oth... (read more)

What does the reaction to NFTs tell us about how people evaluate ecological damage?

The strength of the reaction is, I think, mostly due to its being situated among artist communities, who tend have a very strong, swift moral consensus formation process and a fairly strong voice. 

Artists see themselves as adepts in the plane of narrative, anthems, banners. Ethereum's power consumption is funded, primarily not by transaction fees from real commerce, but by speculation and the minting of mining rewards. These things only have force because a narrative has been constructed where the network has value. Artists are aware that their partic... (read more)

1sxae1moThanks very much for your thoughtful reply MakoYass, I agree with everything you've said here. It's certainly a strange line to straddle personally, where I'm totally on-board the crypto train but also a radical environmentalist. But I also look forward to speculation being ripped out of the crypto ecosystem as much as possible and replaced with functional value. One day soon, we can hope.
Investment is a useful societal mechanism for getting new things made. Stock trading shares some functionality with investment, but seems very very inefficient, at that?

Update: It's been proposed (at least, within IOHK) that a variant of NFTs be created that does this (proportion of profits from resale go back to the artist, or a charity designated by the artist). I think this makes a bit of sense for this scenario. Owners of a NFT want a sense that they fully own the thing, so "printing additional stock" (or selling NFTs as pools of stock that multiple people can buy) wouldn't work.

Feels like a very pre-quantitative mindset though.

On reflection, I think I have heard of "fractionalized NFTs" so uh, this gets quite blurry.

Are index funds still a good investment?

catalyze a massive shift in materials science innovation that could lead to fast AI takeoff

Have you considered not investing in those things, for that reason? As I understand it, accelerating AGI timelines would be the dumbest thing I could ever do. (Money isn't worth winning if it comes at the expense of imperiling my species (and can't then be used to proportionately de-emperil them))

(My understanding is that alignment work likely requires serial contributions from slow human theorists, can't really be accelerated very much with availability of better ha... (read more)

Let's Rename Ourselves The "Metacognitive Movement"

I'm not very worried about people remaining attached to the old term because nobody was ever attached to the old term.

I remember Eliezer saying he doesn't love the term and doesn't remember there ever being a decision to adopt it; most real ones put "aspiring" on the front, recognizing problems mentioned; a lot of living rationalist-adjacent communities have started calling themselves "post-rationalists" in explicit rejection of the term; and objectively speaking, most of the people in the world who flatly identify as "rationalists" haven't read the any yudkowsky at all (seems to be most popular among skeptics operating in very religious regions, increasingly rare in the west).

Let's Rename Ourselves The "Metacognitive Movement"

A love of knowledge? I have always had a terrible memory for all types of knowledge except metacognition. I only learned the age and scale of the universe in recent years for mostly spiritual reasons and I am still way way more interested in uncovering the meta-level of these things, the sorts of ages and scales that we can infer would be common for life-supporting laws-of-physics (the meta seems more directly relevant to anthropic problems).

Let's Rename Ourselves The "Metacognitive Movement"

I commit support.

If there is a difference between studying rationality and studying metacognition, our proclivity, if we're honest, was always first inclined towards studying metacognition, towards truth, principled, correct functionality, then to instrumental concerns as labor. If metacognition had not turned out to have instrumental uses, I would still have this itch to do it.

Similarly, if there exists any good philosophy that isn't just metacognition, I don't really know about it, I wouldn't know about it, I probably wouldn't find any of it interesting,... (read more)

Design thoughts for building a better kind of social space with many webs of trust

I came across the advice "assume that build might get called every frame" just today, and ah shit okay I might understand what's happening, it's doing the whole comment sorting algorithm each frame during transition animations (this doesn't explain laggy scrolling though). Incidentally I was just coding up another view that stows query results instead of regenerating them each time.

Why the hell is it doing this in page transition animations though. The layout of the widgets in the next page doesn't change during the animation and it would be a terrible transition animation if they did.

8ChristianKl2moIt's up to the developer whether or not the layout of the widgets in the next page change in the transition. If you do fancy transitions like using the hero widget, you will get changes in the layout every frame. This is Flutter allowing developers to do fancy graphics that they wouldn't be able to do with other frameworks. In the usecase of changing the sorting of comments a hero [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Be9UH1kXFDw]widget would even make sense (with the comment id as tag). If every comment has it's own hero widget that would result in the user seeing on the screen how the comments move into their new positions. You might not care about animations like the comments moving into the new order from the old order but's the kind of thing Flutter can do. "Flutter is beautiful" and be as being one of it's selling points besides the cross-platform nature of Flutter but animations like hero transitions are what you easily get with Flutter but not as easy in native development. Flutter doesn't have an internal concept that corresponds to the word view. Thinking in those terms might produce confusion. If you use Bloc [https://bloclibrary.dev/#/]you would have a Bloc that receives events like (sort by length, sort by time, sort by vote) and outputs the comments in sorted form then a BlocBuilder [https://bloclibrary.dev/#/flutterbloccoreconcepts?id=blocbuilder] widget that listens to the state from the Bloc and then renders the comments. There are a bunch of different state management solutions besides Bloc that you can use but if you don't use any existing state management library that's likely sets you up for some pains. You want separation of concerns where the UI is separated from the state management and the order of the comments are the state of the app. As far as build being called frequently it's worth noting that this doesn't automatically mean that anything is redrawn. Internally, the build method produced an element tree and when the element tree is
Design thoughts for building a better kind of social space with many webs of trust

This suggestion was really helpful btw, over the past couple of weeks I've been trying developing a mockup of tasteweb in Flutter.

I noticed you were the OP of a reddit thread asking for examples of flutter desktop apps. That thread was *also* helpful to me, lead me to try authpass's app, which performed extremely well on my linux box, informing me that actually flutter is pretty performant and the performance problems I'm having are unique to my project/build config. Ugh. Still don't know what to do. But at least I know it's not flutter itself now.
 

Even just scrolling is horrifically laggy.

4ChristianKl2moIf scrolling is laggy, the most likely explanation is that you are doing things in the UI thread that have no business happening in the UI thread. I found BLOC useful to separate UI concerns from the business logic. It's not really different threads but it's async and in my experience the events that the BLOC get rendered immediately. Flutter also has a bunch of debugging tools to track down were the frames go missing.
Clubhouse

There was an invite chain proposed in Lesswrongers Slack, I don't know if it got running at the time but the comments are still there in #open

Deepmind has made a general inductor ("Making sense of sensory input")

Well I'm not sure there's any reason to think that we can tell, by looking at the mathematical idealizations, that the inductive parts will take about the same amount of work to create as the agentic parts, just because the formalisms seem to weigh similar amounts (and what does that seeming mean?). I'm not sure our intuitions about the weights of the components mean anything.

1interstice4moIf a thing has two main distinct parts, it seems reasonable to say that the thing is half part-1 and half part-2. This does not necessarily imply that the parts are equally difficult to create, although that would be a reasonable prior if you didn't know much about how the parts worked.
Deepmind has made a general inductor ("Making sense of sensory input")

Wondering whether Integrated Information theory dictates that most anthropic moments have internet access

Deepmind has made a general inductor ("Making sense of sensory input")

Hm, to clarify, by "consciously" I didn't mean experiential weight/anthropic measure, in this case I meant the behaviors generally associated with consciousness: metacognition, centralized narratization of thought, that stuff, which I seem to equate to deliberateness.. though maybe those things are only roughly equivalent in humans.

Deepmind has made a general inductor ("Making sense of sensory input")

I'm not aware of a technical definition of "general inductor". I meant that it's an inductor that is quite general.

MakoYass's Shortform

My opinion is that the St Petersberg game isn't paradoxical, it is very valuable, you should play it, it's counterintuitive to you because you can't actually imagine a quantity that comes in linear proportion to utility, you have never encountered one, none seems to exist.

Money, for instance, is definitely not linearly proportionate to utility, the more you get the less it's worth to you, and at its extremes, it can command no more resources than what the market offers, and if you get enough of it, the market will notice and it will all become valueless.

Every resource that exists has sub-linear utility returns in the extremes. 

(Hmm. What about land? Seems linear, to an extent)

4Raemon5moOh wow, this was really great. It's not strictly better than the alternatives but it is very smooth and polished for the specific things it's trying to do. You can check out this instance [https://getmibo.com/join/A45F-S424-2NZF-YEP7] of the world if you don't want to jump through hoops to setup your own instance.
A Scalable Urban Design and the Single Building City

Regarding artificial sunlight: a technology that imitates it shockingly well in many ways, giving a sense of a window to a light source with infinite distance: https://www.coelux.com/en/about-us/index

In software engineering, what are the upper limits of Language-Based Security?

but you sound exactly like the kind of person we want to attend

What, but I'm just a stray dog who makes video games about -... [remembers that I am making a game that centers around an esolang. Turns and looks at my BSc in formal languages and computability. Remembers all of the times a layperson has asked whether I know how to do Hacking and I answered "I'm not really interested in learning how to break things. I'm more interested in developing paradigms where things cannot be broken"]... oh.

uh. maybe.

In software engineering, what are the upper limits of Language-Based Security?

(If you think the question is too underspecified to answer, you probably shouldn't try to post an answer in the answers section. There is a comments section.)

(I'll try to work this into the question description)

Are you asking about which kinds of attacks can't be stopped by improving software?

That would be an interesting thing to see discussed, sure.

Or are you asking about the theoretical limits of PL technology?

No, that might be interesting from the perspective of.. what kinds of engineering robustness will exist at the limits of the singularity (this top... (read more)

Did not know about the answer/comment distinction! Thanks for pointing that out.

Before I dig deeper, I'd like to encourage you to come bring these questions to Formal Methods for the Informal Engineer ( https://fmie2021.github.io/ ), a workshop organized by myself and a few other researchers (including one or two more affiliated with LessWrong!) specifically dedicated to helping build collaborations to increase the adoption of formal methods technologies in the industry. Since it's online this year, it might be a bit harder to have these deep open-ended co... (read more)

It turns out that group meetings are mostly a terrible way to make decisions

Yeah, this is actually one of the key takeaways of the arpa parc paper, leadership's role isn't so much to control or to make very many decisions, their job is to keep everyone lined up with a shared vision so that their actions and decisions fit together. Alignment is the thing that makes organizations run well, it's very important.

The Fermi Paradox has not been dissolved - James Fodor

abiogenesis being so early on Earth is 100% survivorship bias

Being early on earth was not necessary for survival. Similarly, being early for the formation of stars of suitable temperatures also wasn't especially favored by anthropics. Neither of those things had to happen.

Design thoughts for building a better kind of social space with many webs of trust

^_^,.. I might have to curb your excitement a bit and mention that the reason I know about trustnet is that I've known cblgh for years, and that I wrote most of this before reading any of his writing.

And we still haven't really gotten around to reconciling our design thoughts. I think most of this post would be boring to him. Hmm. To do that I'll have to write a bit about

  • how it is feasible for chat and forums to converge
    • More illustrations of UIs for doing that.
  • the dire civilizational need for a wot-moderated forum
  • Maybe I should talk to my friend Demi about
... (read more)
MikkW's Shortform

eschew contextualizing because it ruins the commons

I don't understand. What do you mean by contextualizing?

2Matt Goldenberg7moMore here: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7cAsBPGh98pGyrhz9/decoupling-vs-contextualising-norms [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7cAsBPGh98pGyrhz9/decoupling-vs-contextualising-norms]
Alex Ray's Shortform

Did Bostrom ever call it singleton risk? My understanding is that it's not clear that a singleton is more of an x-risk than its negative; a liberal multipolar situation under which many kinds of defecting/carcony factions can continuously arise.

1Alex Ray7moI don't know if he used that phrasing, but he's definitely talked about the risks (and advantages) posed by singletons [https://www.nickbostrom.com/fut/singleton.html].

For a while, we've been exploring a similar question but more in the direction of pre-committing to giving simulants better lives, rather than just not bringing them into existence: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NiN6fNXjnS9hMSB2C/principia-compat-the-potential-importance-of-multiverse

Trivially, if we prevent simulatees from using anthropic reasoning, or any method of self-location, then the only thing you'll need to do to ensure your status as a nonsimulatee is to just self-locate every once in a while.

Doesn't that protocol just allow some people to prov... (read more)

Rafael Harth's Shortform

I hope you are trying to understand the causes of the success (including luck) instead of just mindlessly following a reward signal. Not even rats mindlessly obey reward signals.

Toon Alfrink's sketchpad

Why aren't presidential races already essentially ITT Tournaments? It would seem like that skill would make you really good at drawing support from lots of different demographics.

MakoYass's Shortform

Idea: Screen burn correction app that figures out how to exactly negate your screen's issues by pretty much looking at itself in a mirror through the selfie cam, trying to display pure white, remembering the imperfections it sees, then tinting everything with the negation of that from then on.

Nobody seems to have made this yet. I think there might be things for tinting your screen in general, but it doesn't know the specific quirks of your screenburn. Most of the apps for screen burn recommend that you just burn every color over the entire screen that isn't damaged yet, so that they all get to be equally damaged, which seems like a really bad thing to be recommending.

Working in Virtual Reality: A Review

I've been meaning to do a post about the near future of VR because I feel like a lot of people don't believe how good it will be, and how soon. But I guess maybe it doesn't need a post of its own. It can be boiled down to:

  • Reaching maximum levels of visual acuity is very achievable via foveated rendering: the optimization of only rendering the patch of the scene that the user is actually looking at in full detail.
  • No mouse will be needed. That prospect, foveated rendering, incents providing eye tracking. External peripherals that aren't right next to your ey
... (read more)
Working in Virtual Reality: A Review

It's concerning how accurate facebook's face tracking seems to be vs how unrealistic it feels. They're doing the best they can. They're doing a really good job. I can't explicitly point out any flaws. It still doesn't feel right at all :(((

Still probably a big step up from not being able to see people at all though.

2ozziegooen7moI guess to me it didn't seem too bad. I've found that talking to people with simple avatars in VR and similar seems surprisingly fine, I'd imagine that in practice you'd get used to this. That said, I also imagine the technology will continue to improve. Deepfakes are getting quite realistic.
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