Of course mind uploading would work hypothetically. The question is, how much of the mind must be uploaded? A directed graph and an update rule? Or an atomic-level simulation of the entire human body? The same principle applies to evolutionary algorithms, reinforcement learning (not the DL sort imo tho, it's a dead end), etc. I actually don't think it would be impossible to at least get a decent lower bound on the complexity needed by each of these approaches. Do the AI safety people do anything like this? That would be a paper I'd like to read.I don't kno... (read more)
Well, I didn't mean to propose an argument.My impression is that there is not a convincing roadmap. I certainly haven't seen one. However, I recognize that there is a healthy possibility that there is one, and I just haven't seen it.Which is why I'm asking for the white paper / textbook chapter that presumably has convinced everyone that we can expect AGI in the coming decades. I would be very grateful for anyone who could provide it.Obviously, AGI is feasible (more than could be said for things like nanotech or quantum computing). However, it's feasible i... (read more)
Can you refer me to a textbook or paper written by the AGI crowd which establishes how we get from GPT-n to an actual AGI? I am very skeptical of AI safety but want to give it a second hearing.
China's sciences are not very good, and relatedly most of those papers are likely of extremely low quality. I know Chinese, and it's a wonderful language, but I wouldn't recommend learning it for that purpose. My 2c
I'm having trouble finding it. It was a survey done by David Putrino, it's mentioned here:"By contrast, Putrino told me that in his survey of 1,400 long-haulers, two-thirds of those who have had antibody tests got negative results, even though their symptoms were consistent with COVID-19."https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/08/long-haulers-covid-19-recognition-support-groups-symptoms/615382/Here is a more vague claim that seems to corroborate:
"Whereas some “long haulers” were found to be positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA by RT-PCR at symptom onset, m... (read more)
As for "long covid" itself, my sense from talking with GPs is that it's mostly misattributed. There's the notorious study which showed that 2/3 of "long covid sufferers" had never been infected with C19 to begin with. It seems like it's just somewhat stronger-than-usual depression? All the risk factors for "long covid" seem to just be risk factors for depression.On the matter of vaccine effectiveness, do we know what the numbers are for obese vs non-obese? Vaccines commonly don't work (well) for the obese, and given how overweight America is I wonder if this is depressing our numbers. Maybe it's like 98% for thin, 70% for overweight, 40% for morbidly obese or something like that?
Bullshit jobs are a lot of it. I'd add anything in media, a lot of academia (shocking numbers of those who'd be better off running a plumbing business in some depts), and non-profit / political activism stuff
Yes, it certainly is too short. I fear some of my writing is too long-winded, and wanted to try the whole "most blog posts should be a tweet" thing. Evidently, this is not the most effective strategy.I don't intend to use education as interchangeable for sanity. Here "sane ideology" is just a cultural belief that maximizes utility. The three ideologies here are: "education is not worth it", "pursue education according to your ability", "get a masters as long as you're not brain dead," which are espoused by much of the lower, middle, and upper classes, resp... (read more)
Ok so I did some reading and my sense is that obligate homosexuality is not very common in the type of matriarchal hunter-gatherer societies you mention (and is not found in wild animals), but is found in domesticated humans and animals. There does appear to be some genetic component as there is a bit of heritability. The obvious question is if there is some selection effect present in domestic environments not present in the wild.
There are two hypotheses which seem somewhat plausible; in both, the gene persists largely due to low mate choice on beha... (read more)
Do you believe it? An obligate homosexual sibling would need to help their siblings have an additional 4 children who survive to reproduction in order to break even. That is a significant burden — especially given infant mortality rates in the ancestral environment, we're potentially talking about 8 additional pregnancies, at which point it seems implausible.Ockham's razor might tell us that LG, where the individual has a mind which motivates against reproduction, are simply the consequence of some developmental failure?
Thanks for offering this insight! Could you clarify how those things are selected for in training? I am actually struggling to imagine how they could be selected for in a BUD/S context — so sharing would be helpful!Also, you say that the training had effects but "not to that magnitude ... not necessarily even in that direction." I'm confused — it sounds like your friend enjoyed effects both to that magnitude and in that direction. Am I misunderstanding? Also, if he did enjoy such effects as you describe, do you have any hypotheses for the mechanism? Given that such radical changes are quite rare naturally, we'd expect there to be something at play here right?
Thank you for offering feedback! The study you mentioned also references another that may indicate that further studies could be helpful to determine whether there is an effect "The results of McDonald, et al. (1988) suggest, inconclusively, that some personality changes may occur during SEAL training" (p 12). Generally speaking, your criticism is well-taken; I agree that the SEAL example is a difficult one because of the strong selection effects. Generally speaking, one should a priori expect more composite conscientiousness in any elite group (except may... (read more)