maximkazhenkov

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Yudkowsky and Christiano discuss "Takeoff Speeds"

Here's a source on horse population in the US

But also, your first graph covers a time period of 200 years whereas the third graph only covers 13; that's not even the same order of magnitude. If you zoom in enough, any curve looks smooth, even an AI that FOOMs in mere hours.

Also, the original quote is stating something about sharp increases in output once the last human bottleneck is gone, not how gradual human elements are being removed.

AI Tracker: monitoring current and near-future risks from superscale models

Interesting; I hadn't heard of DreamerV2. From a quick look at the paper, it looks like one might describe it as a step on the way to something like EfficientZero. Does that sound roughly correct?

Yes. They don't share a common lineage, but are similar in that they're both recent advances in efficient model-based RL. Personally speaking, I think this is the subfield to be closely tracking progress in, because 1) it has far-reaching implications in the long term and 2) it has garnered relatively little attention compared to other subfields.

We may extend this to older models in the future. But our goal right now is to focus on these models' public safety risks as standalone (or nearly standalone) systems.

I see. If you'd like to visualize trends though, you'll need more historical data points, I think.

AI Tracker: monitoring current and near-future risks from superscale models

DreamerV2 seems worthy of inclusion to me. In general, it would be great to see older models incorporated as well; I know this has been done before but having it integrated in a live tracker like yours would be super convenient as a one-stop shop of historical context. It would save people from the temptation of making lots of new lists every time a new model gets released.

What would we do if alignment were futile?

That's how you turn a technical field into a cesspit of social commentary and political virtue signaling.

Think less AGI-Overwatch committee or GPU-export ban and more "Big business bad!", "AI racist!", "Human greed the real problem!"

Ngo and Yudkowsky on AI capability gains

Welcome to 2021, where 1984 is Utopian fiction.

Why I am no longer driven

Am I allowed to swear?

Fuck yeah, but please don't say "irregardless"

Against the idea that physical limits are set in stone

I'd give it a 60% chance that quantum mechanics was the last fundamental physics discovery that has any practical implications.

Against the idea that physical limits are set in stone

1 million Kelvin doesn't even get close to the limit of known physics, LHC generates collisions equivalent to quadrillions of Kelvin, and quantum gravity is another trillion times that. To a physicist looking for new fundamental physics in a 1 million Kelvin plasma sounds about as random a suggestion as chanting spells. In terms of observational science, only cosmology still has the potential to uncover new fundamental physics, which is way beyond this galaxy or galaxy cluster. This ain't the 17th century no more.

Why I am no longer driven

What you advise might work for some, but for others suck forced action would actually make the situation worse! I know this has been the case for me at times: forcing myself to "grind" actually made the problem worse over time rather than better.

I advised no such thing, notice the /s at the end.

Absolutely. Evidence: me and lots of people claiming this.

If anecdotal evidence was the standard to be judged by, alternative medicine would be bloody miracle cures - plenty of patients swear it works. And in the absence of empirical data, it's your anecdotal against my anecdotal evidence. I had no intention of being charitable as I think it's a complete snake-oil industry, Tai Lopez & Co. just made it ridiculously obvious in recent years imo. It doesn't even require practitioners to be consciously ill-intentioned.

Of course, if you see the emotional porn aspect as the product in itself, then there's nothing wrong with it. But I doubt that's what buyers were looking for.

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