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Math. proof of the superiority of independent guesses?

Thanks again!

I guess what I'm pointing to is that it might be individually rational to update on previous guesses (perhaps this could be called "deliberate anchoring"?), whilst it might not be group rational.

3Pattern2y
The relevant post sounds like "Hold off on proposing solutions".
Math. proof of the superiority of independent guesses?

Thanks! And sorry for being such a noob.

Concerning "anchoring", do you know where I can go to read more?

2Pattern2y
(I don't know the state of the research with regards to replication [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Replication_crisis].) Asking this question in the right subreddit might turn up better results from people up to date on where the field is today. If you're interested in the research at the time the sequences was done, here's the bibliography, which might include what you're looking for (I've heard it's not complete overall, but there's 5 things that came up searching that page for "anchoring"): https://www.readthesequences.com/Bibliography That is old research (I think it's all from well before 2000*), and as for where things are at now, I'm not sure. I turned up this literature review (2011): http://www.communicationcache.com/uploads/1/0/8/8/10887248/a_literature_review_of_the_anchoring_effect.pdf [http://www.communicationcache.com/uploads/1/0/8/8/10887248/a_literature_review_of_the_anchoring_effect.pdf] *Some of the same stuff is covered on Wikipedia: Anchoring (Cognitive Bias): [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anchoring_(cognitive_bias)] [Emphasis added - looking up those researchers might be a good source, if you're interested in the start of the field.] There's more on Wikipedia, but that link [https://web.archive.org/web/20200109001459/http://www.its.caltech.edu/~camerer/Ec101/JudgementUncertainty.pdf] in the quote above seems to be from a study published in 1974. https://arxiv.org/ [https://arxiv.org/] doesn't have a paywall, but doesn't seem to have a category for psychology or biases.