All of MZ's Comments + Replies

The Weak Inside View

BTW, there aren't just four such shifts. If you looked closely enough, you could find many more. The evolution of multicellular life. The evolution of sex / genetic exchange. The first tools. Writing. All of these paradigm shifts changed growth rates, although the curve looks rather flat by today's standards.

The Weak Inside View

The next shift may already have happened. It's called the Internet. But in 1860, nobody saw the burgeoning industrial revolution for what it was. In fact, by today's standards, it was still very inefficient and unproductive. But it created the paradigm shift by which new growth rates could be achieved.

Lawful Uncertainty

Surely if you told the subjects that 90% or 95% of the cards were blue, they might hypothesize or stumble upon the optimal solution. So I wonder how high that number needs to be. Or would they still guess red 1 out of 20 times?

Ban the Bear

I know this is off-topic, but I want to bring up a point, and I don't want to wait around for the next Open Thread.

Ever since I read about prediction markets on this blog, and I read The Wisdom of Crowds, I became interested in both. And I watched Intrade.

I've especially watched Intrade over the last month. But what I came to realize is that Intrade doesn't know anything that any of us, individually, would not know.

A month ago, Obama was leading in the polls, and predictably, he was leading on Intrade. Then McCain got the "Palin bounce", he le... (read more)

Ban the Bear

We have so many regulators we effectively have no regulation (but lotsa transaction costs).

Well put, except it's not true. As we're seeing now, the inefficiency introduced by regulations is more than compensated by the investor confidence resulting from a stable market.

We're going to spend hundreds of billions of dollars to save potentially trillions in losses. $100 million of regulation and oversight, applied at the right time, could have done the same.

Touching the Old

The story you describe is called a spiritual experience. Atheists can have them too.

"[O]ur existence is but a brief crack of light between two eternities of darkness." -- Vladimir Nabokov

The Rhythm of Disagreement

"You can teach people Bayesian math, but even if they're genuinely very good with the math, applying it to real life and real beliefs is a whole different story."

The problem is that people do things, or believe things, or say they believe things for reasons other than instrumental truth.

Many people have done that throughout history. Homosexuals married and had children. Atheists attended church. While they may have had private disagreements that their closest relatives knew about, they were advised to keep quiet and not embarrass their family.... (read more)