Very nicely researched and explained analysis. Contains several points that I had not thought about much before if at all, including the analysis of false negatives in this particular context.
I'd be interested to hear more thoughts on your mechanistic explanation from commenters with more expertise in immunology.
Also interested to hear how you and other commenters are planning to change your own Covid risk-taking behavior after being vaccinated. I am coming up on two weeks after my second Pfizer shot and debating that for myself.
It seems the caveat regardi... (read more)
Seems to be of great practical significance to me. If there's a decent chance that I could return completely to unlimited degrees of interpersonal close contact and have only a 1/20 - 1/100 chance of getting symptomatic Covid with unlimited amounts of exposure, even if I would get covid many times over while unvaccinated, I'd be quite tempted to do it. If returning to that level of exposure would mean that I'd almost inevitably get Covid eventually, I'd be much more likely to play it safe for at least a few months more and see where things go with infection rates and new variants.