All of Osuniev's Comments + Replies

0[anonymous]7y
C'est ce que je dis, l'intention est louable et c'est très bien, je veux dire que à force rendre tout rationnel on ne saura plus distinguer ce qui est rationnel de ce que l'on a rendu rationnel, pour moi on devrai laisser de la place a l’irrationnel car il compose un grande partie de notre monde, la fanfiction est très bien écrite mais pour moi devrais rester au rang de fanfiction au lieu d'objet d'étude,après peut être n'ai je pas compris le vrai sens de cette dernière et dans ce cas je m'excuse pour ce commentaire, qu'est ce que tu en penses?
What are your contrarian views?

I read this trying to keep as open a mind as possible, and I think there is SOME value to SOME of what he said (ie no two experiments are totally the same and replicators often are motivated to prove the first study wrong)... But one thing that really set me off is that he genuinely considers a study that doesn't prove its hypothesis as a failure, not even acknowledging that IN PRINCIPLE, this study has proven the hypothesis wrong, which is valuable knowledge all the same.

Which is so jarring with what I consider the very basis of science that I find difficult to take Mitchell seriously.

What are your contrarian views?

But things ARE moving in this direction, I believe. Bolivia is trying to figure a way to start getting money from the world's largest reserve of lithium, currently untouched because under the natural wonder Salar de Uyuni

0ChristianKl8y
Things are moving into the direction of producing more lithium but not enough to simply double lithium production in one or two years. Replacing all cars with electric cars might require a lot more than doubling.
You are the average of the five people you spend most time with.

Correlation is not causation. Who you are defines your friends probably as much as your friends define who you are, AND both are mainly consequences of something different entirely (which schol you went too, etc...)

3Cthulhoo9y
I second this. Friends selection usually involves having some mutual interests: math, music, movies, parties, whatever. The focus of the activity you do together will mostly invole those interests, therefore you will put more effort into getting "better" at them, if only because you're spending more time practicing. I don't think the opposite can be true: of you hate physics, you can't just hang out with a phisicist to get better at it. I regularly hang out with my oldest group of firends, and none of them has ever expressed interest in knowing more about my thesis on the Higgs Boson - or the law of conservation of momentum for what matters. On the other hand, I can have more challenging conversation with my colleagues on this topic, but, while many of them are also excellent musicians, I never thought about getting to practice with my guitar again.
Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 27, chapter 98

In canon, Apparition becomes unreliable across long distances (as in, very few people could reliably travel to another country by Apparating, and even less (no one ?) to another continent). If this is true in HPMoR universe, then Apparate to the Pioneer plaque is out of question.

Earning to Give vs. Altruistic Career Choice Revisited

I'm not sure if you were answering my comment or wubbles's one. What I was saying was that you need to take into account the negative impact your job and way of life have on the world.

I agree that the US government probably is terrible at using tax money to better the world.

Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 19, chapter 88-89

Well, I may have read too much into this statement, that's true. I always assumed that Dumbledore conveniently "going to the Ministry of Magic" on a broomstick or with a Thestral (and not using one of the million other possibilities such as Floo Powder, Portkey, Apparating), then SUDDENLY realizing halfway that Hogwarts is where he ought to be were meant to signify the adult reader that, unlike what Canon!HP understood, Dumbledore knew all along and was trying to trick Voldemort/Quirrel into trying to get the Stone (which was safe inside the mirr... (read more)

Earning to Give vs. Altruistic Career Choice Revisited

THIS. Although I`m unsure about the particulars you mention here, being an European, people and effective altruists need to realize that your job is INSIDE the world you live in. Estimating how much good you're producing is not just about how much money/time you're giving to effective charities, but also how much your way of life is helping/damaging the world.

7ygert9y
I'm not convinced. The amount of saved lives, QALYs, or whatever you are counting that the US government welfare program gets per dollar is (or seems to be to me) quite a bit less than the amount that, say, the AMF could get with that money. I don't know how many dollars per QALY US government welfare manages to get, but I wouldn't be surprised if it were on the order of $1000-$10000 per QALY. And that's not even counting the fact that even if the US goverment had that bit more money from you not being a tax lawyer, that money would not all go to welfare and other such efficient (relative to what else the government spends money on) projects. I would imagine a fair portion would go to, say, bombing Syria, or hiring an extra parking-meter enforcer, or such inefficent stuff, that get an even worse $/QALY result. And that is still not to mention the fact that some of that money would go to, say, funding the NSA to spy on your phone calls and read your email, or to the TSA to harass, strip-search, and detain you, which are net negatives. And even that is not counting that MIRI may end up having a QALY/$ result far, far higher than anything the AMF or whoever could ever hope of possibly getting. I'm not saying you're flat-out wrong, and it is something to take into consideration when figuring out the altruistic impact of your job, but taking into account these objections, it seems highly unlikely that the marginal dollar from the government goes far enough to weigh very heavily in ones analysis.
Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 19, chapter 88-89

In Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Imperiused Pius Thicknesse is charged by the Death Eaters with imperiusing other members of the MoM. (Or was he the one being imperiued by an imperiused ?)

Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 19, chapter 88-89

Quote ? I think the 7th book of the chronicles of Narnia clearly establishes that Aslan IS, in fact, Jesus in a very litteral sense.

5ArisKatsaris9y
We find out he didn't trust Quirrel (as he tells Snape in flashback to keep an eye on Quirrel), I don't think we find out he knew Quirrel was being possessed by Voldemort.
2Osuniev9y
Putting my wager where my mouth is : http://predictionbook.com/predictions/20831 [http://predictionbook.com/predictions/20831]
Rationality Quotes April 2013

I would say this is not ALWAYS true. But for the purpose of civilized discussion between human beings, it does seem like a very useful rule of thumb.

Tolerate Tolerance

Maybe because you are hurting and getting hurt, but these "enablers of foolishness" are getting hurt while they don't (consciously) hurt others, and therefore would probably consider unfair to be attacked.

Tolerate Tolerance

Well, as a kid I got bullied at school, quite a bit, and I DO remember bullying other a handful of times.

I remember being conscious about it and feeling like shit for it, but at the same time being so relieved because as long as someone else was being bullied, I wasn't.

I certainly did not enjoy it, mainly because it contradicted my vision of myself as a courageous victim.

Tolerate Tolerance

´Well, tolerating them has a good chance of signalling to neutral observers that you are not a pompous jerk, and therefore listen to your ideas favorably.

The Power of Positivist Thinking

(...Except when faced with a rationality-punishing deity)

And even there, arguably, the true beliefs of "this deity punish rationality" and "this deity uses this algorithm to do so" could lead to applying the right kind of behaviour to avoid said punishment.

The Power of Positivist Thinking

Well, rationalists should end up "winning" insofar as winning means "doing better than non-rationalists ON AVERAGE.

Then again, it doesn't mean all rationalists end up living 120 years old and extremely rich. If yo are a non-rationalist born with 1 billion of dollars on your bank account you'll probably end up richer than a rationalist born in North korea in a poor family with no legs and no arms.

But on the other hand, if you cannot identify the causes for your defeats as completely independant of yourself, it probably means you are doing som... (read more)

Action and habit

Arguably... They could be.

http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1857113,00.html

It is really easy (and almost costless) to reduce the quantity of water they use. It might indeed seem an abonimation to continue using them.

Action and habit

That sounds like a rather bad idea to me. Not eating means being hungrier next meal, and will probably lead to... overeating. What's more, it seems having many small meals is better than having a few big meals (your glucose level is more stable, and your insuline regulation will be less likely to make you overweight).

Fairness vs. Goodness

/ Reeves, if both players play (C, C) and then divide up the points evenly at the end, isn't that sort of... well... communism?

Is this wrong for other reason than cached thoughts though ? (Probably yes, but you didn't explain it).

0Eliezer Yudkowsky9y
Because it's rejecting the premise of a perfectly good experiment, not because it would be a bad idea in real life. Also there's difficulties with having canonical utility measures across agents, but that's a separate point.
Self-fulfilling correlations

Well since he starts the sentence with SOMETIMES,wether it's negative or positive his sentence is correct. I guess you could nitpick on insisting that corr(X,Y) != 0 ...

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No One Can Exempt You From Rationality's Laws

upvoted for not taking argument as soldiers.

The Robbers Cave Experiment

Just in case : "1984" was written in 1947. The original title of the book was to be "1948", the editor asked Orwell to change it so he reversed the numbers.Or so I have heard, I can't seem to find the confirmation, if anyone could confirm or infirm ?

Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 13, chapter 81

HPMOR!Harry's wand signalled itself to him by BLUE and BRONZE sparks, while Canon!Harry's one made red and gold. (IMO as a reference to the Phoenix, not Griffindor).

I'd take it as a strong hint from EY that Ravenclaw IS Harry true House.

Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 13, chapter 81

Well, each of them successively defied Death by asking a gift from it. Still far-fetched, I admit.

By Which It May Be Judged

"How is this relevant?"

It is relevant because i you cannot find any experimental differences betweenn you and a you NOT experiencing, then maybe there is no such difference.

0Eugine_Nier10y
I cannot present you with evidence that I am experiencing, except maybe by analogy with yourself. I, however, know that I experience because I experience it.
Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 13, chapter 81

re-reading chapter 76 made me realise the prophecy could not be about Voldemort at all :

Let's look at this prophecy in detail :

"The one with the power to vanquish the Dark Lord approaches,"

Vanquish, as Snape said, is a strange word to describe a baby accidentally toasting Voldemort, especially since we have evidence that this might not be what really happened. "Dark Lord" is used by EY quite loosely, and not as something specifically relating to Voldemort. Indeed, Dumbledore seems to worry that he could be this Dark Lord. Now, if we ste... (read more)

2Osuniev7y
Well, so much for that !
0player_038y
Harry left "a portion of his life" (not an exact quote) in Azkaban, and apparently it will remain there forever. That could be the remnant that Death would fail to destroy. Anyway, Snape drew attention to the final line in the prophecy. It talked about two different spirits that couldn't exist in the same world, or perhaps two ingredients that cannot exist in the same cauldron. That's not Harry and Voldemort; that's Harry and Death. I mean, Harry has already sworn to put an end to death. It's how he casts his patronus. He's a lot less sure about killing Voldemort, and would prefer not to, if given the choice.
0Osuniev9y
In light of chapters 96 I would update this chance to 45 %.
0gwern10y
I only count one defiance there. Or did you mean the brothers plural accounted for three defiances? But the other two brothers just die horribly after making ill-chosen requests.
Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 13, chapter 81

For all those wandering WHY wizards don't use their powers to get money from the Muggle economy...

Canon!Lucius does, according to Rowling (from her website Pottermore):

" The Malfoy name comes from old French and translates as 'bad faith'. Like many other progenitors of noble English families, the wizard Armand Malfoy arrived in Britain with William the Conqueror as part of the invading Norman army. Having rendered unknown, shady (and almost certainly magical) services to King William I, Malfoy was given a prime piece of land in Wiltshire, seized from ... (read more)

Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 13, chapter 81

For all those wandering WHY wizards don't use their powers to get money from the Muggle economy...

Canon!Lucius does, according to Rowling (from her website Pottermore): The Malfoy name comes from old French and translates as 'bad faith'. Like many other progenitors of noble English families, the wizard Armand Malfoy arrived in Britain with William the Conqueror as part of the invading Norman army. Having rendered unknown, shady (and almost certainly magical) services to King William I, Malfoy was given a prime piece of land in Wiltshire, seized from local ... (read more)