All of pepe_prime's Comments + Replies

A man dies and is sent to hell

Not sure if your comment is critical or amused. This naming scheme is the standard I've been using for a while but I could add something like "Story: " or "Stockholm SSC: ".

A Rationalist in the Zombie Apocalypse

Sure, I will message you the zoom link.

1Evanavel Leishmic2yMe too, plz.
Has anyone used TAPs to combat BFRBs?

I extinguished 4 such behaviors in the last couple years. I made a tally every time I did the behavior (on my phone). So the TAP was

Do behavior -> Open phone

At the end of each week I gave my friend some money - a dime for each tally. Several years ago I tried to extinguish nose-picking and succeeded, but relapsed after 6-12 months, and basically trying again in a similar way worked a second time.

Clothing For Men

Like mr-hire I like the topic choice and think lesswrong would get value out of it.

However, you included 0 image links, as far as I can tell. If I'm an unfashionable male, how do I know what a "light" or "dark" navy is? How do I know what a "chino" is?

Also this entire post could have been a linkpost to r/malefashionadvice, which appears to be the source of most of your advice.

2Solnassant3yYou’re right about the images. I want to add some. It was making me procrastinate so I decided to just post it without them. I don’t think however that you need me to know what light or dark is. For something like a chino though you’re right. For those who don’t know; they’re the simple cotton-made trousers that aren’t jeans (can’t think of a better pointer). As for the r/malefashionadvice, never read in my life, so you’re somewhat mind-fallacy-ing me here. The French blog is my main reference. As well as their YouTube channel which has some translated videos. I’ll link the YouTube and r/malefashionadvice at the end of the article.
European Community Weekend 2018 Announcement

You might want to advertise this on LesserWrong, which is somewhat officially the new site.

Notes From an Apocalypse

Really fun writing style. Nit: Quotes, e.g. the one by Darwin about the Silurian, should be distinguished in some way.

2Toggle4yOn my screen, it shows up as an indented text block, which generally doesn't require separate quote marks. Is it not showing up that way for you?
2017 LessWrong Survey

I have taken the survey.

2017 LessWrong Survey

[Survey Taken Thread]

By ancient tradition, if you take the survey you may comment saying you have done so here, and people will upvote you and you will get karma.

Let's make these comments a reply to this post. That way we continue the tradition, but keep the discussion a bit cleaner.

5marchdown4ySurvey taken.
5alexey4yI've taken the survey.
5kvas_duplicate0.16361211296761184yI took the survey. It was long but fun. Thanks for the work you've put into designing it and processing the results.
7plethora4yI have taken the survey.
7jkadlubo4yI've taken the survey. Possibly my first activity here this year
9tenthkrige4yI have also taken the survey.

I took the survey. It's probably my favorite survey of each year :) Thanks.

I have taken the survey.

Survey taken!

I have taken the survey, please shower me in karma.

I have completed the survey and upvoted everyone else on this thread

I've taken the survey.


I have taken the survey!

I either have taken the survey in the last couple of hours, or have begun taking it and hereby commit to submitting a completed survey in the next couple of hours.

(Expressed in this form so as not to leak information about which survey is whose.)

[EDITED to add:] This is just to confirm that I have in fact completed the survey. I have also upvoted all the other taken-the-survey comments currently present.

I took the survey, phew that was long. I added a public key for what it's worth.

I did it!

I have taken the survey... away from everyone.

No one can have it.

It lives under my bed now.

I have taken the survey.

It is done.

I have taken the survey.

I have taken the survey. Cannot remember my old public key, shrug

I have taken the survey.

I have taken the survey.

I took the survey and upvoted every comment already here.

Survey completed

I have also taken this survey.


I took the survey!

I have taken the survey.

I took the survey!

I have taken the survey.

I have taken the survey.

I took the survey. I feel like the questions that ask for numeric answers about the probability of AI risk should have been optional because I have very weak fews about them

I have taken the survey.

I have taken the survey. I don't remember there being a public key question at the end of the last one though, which is a shame since that obviously means I don't remember what mine was last time.

I took the survey. Towards a better future!

I have taken the survey.

0Elo4yLooks like you are referring to replication problems. Without reading the papers, I am not sure which way this one will hold but you can test this yourself. doing the pen-in-teeth experiment and watch a funny youtube clip and then rate how funny it is. repeat for other less-funny clips (yes it's bad science but it's worth trying)
The types of manipulation on vote-based forums

Thanks, these are excellent highlight reels.

The types of manipulation on vote-based forums

Self-explanatory title. The list is rather rambling and not terribly comprehensive, but I found it worthwhile nonetheless.

Here's a summary, of sorts. OP also discusses what can be done about manipulation, in a way relevant for lesswrong.

When I first tried to post this I accidentally saved as draft first and it ended up pointing to itself, so I'm reposting. Thanks satt.

The types of manipulation on vote-based forums

Thanks. Not sure how I caused that, or how to fix it, so I'm deleting and reposting the link.

The types of manipulation on vote-based forums

Self-explanatory title. The list is rather rambling and not terribly comprehensive, but I found it worthwhile nonetheless.

Here's a summary, of sorts. OP also discusses what can be done about manipulation, in a way relevant for lesswrong.

Perhaps the key takeaway here is the useful word 'pabulum'.

Using a Spreadsheet to Make Good Decisions: Five Examples

Really fantastic that you started an effective charity! Everything about your approach is awesome. I hope the rest of your top 8 get test driven (by you or others) someday as well.

Generally I agree with the spreadsheeting concept. There's also Guesstimate for when your weights and uncertainties are numerical.

1sudoLife5moThanks for the amazing tool suggestion! I wonder why I've never seen it used in Lesswrong estimations before.
Meetup : Stockholm: When to stop making a decision

I don't think there's a mailing list yet. We could move some or all of the meetups to evenings/weekends if there's interest. Help me gather preferred times.

David_Kristoffersson has proposed a meetup this Friday. I've set it for 17:00 in light of your comment.

Meetup : Stockholm: When to stop making a decision

Yes, in the KTH computer science building.

Yes, it's UTC+2. It's 15:00 local time.

Awesome, thanks! Also, I'm glad to see there are lesswrongers about.

2016 LessWrong Diaspora Survey Analysis: Part Four (Politics, Calibration & Probability, Futurology, Charity & Effective Altruism)


If that happened in the modern world, technological civilization might end and never be restarted. The modern world depends on hugely complex infrastructure and tons of different industries and inputs. If we lose that, it would be very difficult to rebuild. We've already extracted most of the easy to get to minerals and fossil fuels. Much farmland has been degraded from overuse and depends on inputs of fertilizer, irrigation systems, and of course modern machinery which would be difficult to replace.


I agree. The end of techn

... (read more)
3scarcegreengrass5yThe preceding comments are a good example of Less Wrong users taking a contentious disagreement and coming to a courteous equilibrium. Impressive.
Neutralizing Physical Annoyances

I disagree. Sure, research shows that memory formation is improved when you relax. If I want to remember a specific fact though, it helps me to mentally search for contextual clues around where I learned the fact.

Maybe I'm doing it wrong though - any research or convincing anecdotes on this?

2NancyLebovitz5yAll I've got is personal experience. Sometimes relaxing is speeding up the process of "When I stopped thinking about it, it popped into my mind". I search for contextual clues, and sometimes it works. However, if I'm stuck on some idea about what the right answer is, but that isn't working, relaxing can help.
Stupid Questions September 2016

How about these? They have 3 colors and don't cycle.

Stupid Questions September 2016

That's an interesting idea and yes, I think it would help. It seems you can find cable sleeves in this style, though I'm only seeing them in bulk.

0Gram_Stone5yYeah, I've seen things like that. The problem there is that the colors cycle. The point is to provide an unambiguous visual cue of where along the length of the cord a given section of cord is. If the colors cycle, then two locations can have the same color, undermining the utility of the cue. A few other products come with a gradient on the cord, but the endpoints barely contrast; say a light yellow-light orange gradient.
Wear a Helmet While Driving a Car

For injuries

R> sum(sapply(seq((80-30), 0), function(t) { 5000 * 3.431544214e-09 * t * 0.97^t * 0.63 * 50000 }))
# [1] 264.9444032

Rate should be 1.634253963e-08, yielding about $1261.78 lifetime loss.

Economy gossip open thread

This is a really great link!

(Virtual) Employment Open Thread

If your resume lists sufficient credentials (high SAT scores or gpa, attending or graduated from a good college, or previous tutoring experience) it's easy to get a job at a tutoring agency. They take a 50-70% cut of earnings, leaving you with $11-35/hr. There are many such agencies both for in-office and in-home, mostly 1-on-1. Agencies exist that focus on test-prep (preparing for the SAT, mostly), that focus on supplementing an existing class, or both. If you don't have the credentials, it's still worth a shot to apply.

Alternatively, you can advertise on... (read more)

General-Purpose Questions Thread

If you dig down 3 links you find the Commuter's Paradox. I found this paper to use very reasonable controls and explain itself well. Sadly, it doesn't address your question about different modes of transportation.

General-Purpose Questions Thread

Strangeattractor has made many excellent points here. Let me add a bit:

StackOverflow has the most detailed data I've seen on features that make software jobs satisfying:

The city you work in affects the salary pool that companies compete against with their offers. San Francisco, New York, and Seattle are much higher paid than other cities, and the USA is much higher paid than any other country. Big companies also pay more.

Lastly, apply to many companies simultaneously. If you have 2 or more offers... (read more)

My Custom Spelling Dictionary

This is a cool idea, and a cool source for a rational anki deck. I'd post mine, but I don't add any custom spellings to chrome.

Open thread, Jan. 18 - Jan. 24, 2016

Could you elaborate on why squatting is a clear win? I took a brief look online and the evidence seems to favor squatting, but not hugely:

Regardless, thanks for the list!

0James_Miller6yThe cost of squatting is tiny, and part of the benefit is saved time so on net it seems like a clear win.
Survey Results

Did you ever write up your results? They would make a valuable addition to the historical data.

Is Scott Alexander bad at math?

you're an outsider

Jonah has something like 91 posts and has been posting since May 2013.

2[anonymous]7yAh, really? Interesting! I thought everyone was reacting to his being an outsider. Huh, turns out he's an insider. Dafuck?
Is Scott Alexander bad at math?

I'd like to point out that the 2014 survey found 7.0% of LWers to have PhDs and 2.9% to have other professional degrees. These objective measures are considered by society at large to be of roughly equal intellectual caliber. You probably don't outstrip this roughly 1 in 10 lesswrongers by a such a large margin.

Of course, the survey results may not be accurate. Furthermore while most of those degrees are in sciences, only a handful are in math or a close field. Thus if you consider math to require higher intellectual caliber (as I'm sure we both do) then y... (read more)