All of pookleblinky's Comments + Replies

Anchoring and Adjustment

Let's make the debiasing technique more rigorous.

How much more unlikely is it that I will throw 15 consecutive snake-eyes, than that I will throw 11 consecutive snake eyes?

I should allocate about -170 dB of belief to the likelihood of throwing 11 snake-eyes, and about -232 dB to the likelihood I will throw 15 snake-eyes. The ~60 dB difference indicates the latter event is 6 orders of magnitude more unlikely.

What does it mean if someone thinks the difference is smaller?

If 6 orders of magnitude of improbability are glossed over, that means the person does no... (read more)

0pnrjulius10yI ran that one in my head and thought, "that's got to be about a million times less likely." And indeed it was, 6 orders of magnitude. To some extent, I may just have gotten lucky... but I think that lurking on Less Wrong for the last couple years may have made me appreciate probabilities at a more intuitive level. So does this mean Less Wrong actually works?
My Childhood Role Model

Hero-worship of Einstein is something science will eventually be forced to get over.

Hero-worship of Feynman, though, is here to stay.