Let's stop using hammers and Socrates and talk about what real tools you both are using to harness your intuitions. Whence the confidence, Eliezer? Whence the doubt, Robin?
I get the feeling you are getting closer in the last comment Robin, but I still can't get through that dense block of text to get a feel for what you're getting at.
Kudos to both of you for standing honorably by such a heated and potentially enlightening discussion.