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What probability do you guys assign to the god hypothesis being true?

The main issue with your question is the word "the." There are vastly many possible ways to define the word "god," any one of which could exist or not. But most of those are also individually vastly complicated and exceedingly unlikely to exist unless there is some causal process that brought them into being, which in the eyes of many actual current human believers of a particular version would disqualify them from godhood.