All of Rene de Visser's Comments + Replies

How much chess engine progress is about adapting to bigger computers?

I think you can compare modern chess programs with each other to evaluate this.

Some comparisons have been made between different modern chess engines in TCEC.

Stockfish is particularly well adapted to using lots of cores. i.e. Stockfish has a much larger advantage over the other modern programs when lots of CPU cores a available as they have optimized hash table contention very well.

If you compare NNUE stockfish to classic stockfish is also the question of how much strength stockfish NNUE loses when playing on hardware that does not support SIMD.

Similarly y... (read more)

2paulfchristiano5moI'm pretty interested in understanding the size of this effect by scaling down the memory use as well as compute to historical levels. (This is one of my concerns about hippke's experiment [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/75dnjiD8kv2khe9eQ/measuring-hardware-overhang], though it seems like they think it's not a big factor.)
Self-confirming predictions can be arbitrarily bad

I am not sure what exactly you are meaning by predicting. You can tell the donor a different amount, than you are internally expecting to obtain.

The post concerns self-confirming predictions. The donor asked for a prediction of how much money they'll give you...after they hear your prediction. A prediction you give them would be "self-confirming" if they gave you the amount you specified. Here "prediction" refers to "the amount you tell them", as opposed to the amount

you are internally expecting to obtain.

which no one other than you actually knows.