I'm bit confused about the Deribit trade. I can see that you can hedge your position with this trade, but I don't understand how you get the return?
The futures price will converge to the spot price as expiration draws near, but this is not necessarily the spot price you paid... I must be missing something... Any pointer?
Is there an alternative to predictionbook.com for private predictions? I'd like to have all the nice goodies like updateble predictions in scicast/metaculus, but for private stuff?
Is there a off-line version of prediction book (command line or gui)?
Thanks tried that. Not sure it worked as I didn't learn anything concrete. We spent 30 mins in discussion though (which he didn't need to do as there was no further value he could extract from me).
Oh well, such is life...
Any tips on eliciting good, honest personal feedback? I just got a rejection from a position I wanted and will have a call with the headhunter tomorrow. I'd like to extract something useful information out of it. Any tips of good question formulations?
E.g. in a survey I ask instead of "Do you use X?" the question "In the past 3 months how many times did you use X?" to get a less biased answer.
Any good questions/ideas?
The first answer here is pretty good, though doesn't quite apply for my situation:
https://www.quora.com/Whats-the-best... (read more)
New papers byt Jan Leike, Marcus Hutter:
Solomonoff Induction Violates Nicod's Criterion
On the Computability of Solomonoff Induction and Knowledge-Seeking
Is there a reason to take magnesium citrate at night and not in the morning?
John Baez's Azimuth project/community might be of interest to you.
I suppose you've already checked the usuals like coursera, udacity, youtube courses etc.?
"Medicine" is exteremely broad, but you can find some interesting intro courses to some of its aspects, e.g.:
Just some more general courses that sound interesting/useful:
Clinical Terminology for International and U.S. Students
Understanding Research: An Overview for Health Professionals (looks extremely useful!)
https://www.coursera.org/cou... (read more)
Reposting for visibility from the previous open thread as I posted on the last day of it (will not be reposting this anymore):
Speed reading doesn't register many hits here, but in a recent thread on subvocalization there are claims of speeds well above 500 WPM.
My standard reading speed is about 200 WPM (based on my eReader statistics, varies by content), I can push myself to maybe 240 but it is not enjoyable (I wouldn't read fiction at this speed) and 450-500 WPM with RSVP.
My aim this year is to get myself at 500+ WPM base (i.e. usable also for leisure rea... (read more)
My standard reading speed is about 200 WPM (based on my eReader statisitcs, varies by content), I can push myself to maybe 240 but it is not enjoyable (I wouldn't read fiction at this speed) and 450-500 WPM with RSVP.
My aim this year is to get myself at 500+ WPM base (i.e. usable also for leisure reading and without RSVP).
Is this even possible? Claims seem to be contradictory.
Does anybody have recommendations on systems th... (read more)
Category theory gives a few hits at LW, but doesn't seem to be recognized very wildly. On a first glance it seems to be relevant for Bayes nets, cognitive architectures and several other topics. Recent text book that seems very promising:
Category theory for scientists by David I. Spivak: http://arxiv.org/abs/1302.6946
There are many books designed to introduce category theory to either a mathematical audience or a computer science audience. In this book, our audience is the broader scientific community. We attempt to show that category theory can ... (read more)
I'll try to come, too. Given the weather, Gasteig?
German speakers - trying to improve my german I'm looking for good blog recommendations. Ideally dealing with similar topics as seen here (rationality, AI, philosophy) but any thoughtful, well written essays would do. Some good people to follow? I like Thomas Metzinger as a reference point for you. Thank you!
Yep, I agree. This is definitely an (optimistic) lower limit. Good that these studies are gaining attention, though a systemic change would be needed to get us out of this.
Empirical estimates suggest most published medical research is true
OK, so now we need a meta-analysis of these meta-analyses...
Thanks! And thank you for the link!
In the Interview with Adam Ford Michael Vasser mentions a series of papers on efficient market biases at presence of risk by Brad Delong and somebody whose name I can not make out (Samus? Samuls?). Does anybody know which papers is he referring to?
@16:00 into the video
Michael Vasser - Darwinian Method - Interview with Adam Ford is pretty damm excellent
Rest of Adam Ford's uploads seem very interesting too!