Ahh, I had forgotten that "not stolen" shareholders can also take actions that make their desired outcome more likely. If you erroneously assume that only someone's desire to steal the rack -- and not their desire to defend the rack from theft -- can be affected by the market, then of course you'll find that the market asymmetrically incentivizes only rack-stealing behavior. Thanks for setting me straight on that!
This is pretty interesting: it implies that making a market on the rack theft increases the probability of the theft, and making more shares increases the probability more.
One way to think about this is that the money the market-maker puts into creating the shares is subsidizing the theft. In a world with no market, a thief will only steal the rack if they value it at more than $1,000. But in a world with the market, a thief will only steal the rack if they value the rack + [the money they can make off of buying "rack stolen" shares] more than $1000. ... (read more)
Yes cases show up in the data on the day that they first report symptoms, not when they were first exposed. As you say, this means that if the data show some efficacy on a given day, you should actually expect to be protected at that level a few days before.
On top of that, people in the waiting room were talking about how you can tell if you're getting the real vaccine by looking at the syringe. And top of that, the doctor who gave me the injection basically told me that I got the real thing ("Keep wearing your mask, we don't know yet if these work"), and
It's mentioned in the screenshotted White House statement, but bears emphasizing: the U.S. is also sending vaccine ingredients to India for them to produce vaccines with, effective immediately. This is important because India apparently has good production capacity, but lacks raw materials. Depending on how much raw material we have and how long it takes to turn raw materials into shots in arms, this might be more impactful than the decision to share stockpiled doses over the coming months.
(I'd also like to complain that in the "India" section, all the obj... (read more)
Umm ... that's weird. I'll paste in the picture again and maybe that'll fix whatever bug is going on? Let me know if it loads now.
I wouldn't trust the vaccine hesitancy data at the sub-state level. From the methodology here, the state level data come from the Household Pulse Survey (HPS), and the local estimates are produced by adjusting these data using sociodemographic factors:
Our statistical analysis occurred in two steps. First, using the HPS, we used a logistic regression to analyze predictors of vaccine hesitancy using the following sociodemographic and geographic information: age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, marital status, health insurance status, household income, sta
You could use a monospace font, the same way that Douglas Hofstaedter distinguishes strings of a formal system in Godel, Escher, Bach. It's poetically appropriate because Hofstaedter was trying to solve the same problem you are: use typesetting to set apart map and territory.
Minor correction to the "How Many Undiagnosed Cases" section (I think): the CDC calls the parameter they're estimating "Mean ratio of estimated infections to reported case counts," which seems to imply it's the ratio [estimated actual cases (including reported ones)]:[reported cases]. They say their best guess is 11 with a range of (6,24), meaning that you've added 1 to all of these numbers. That would be correct if the CDC's parameter was meant to be [estimated actual cases (not including reported ones)]:[reported cases], but that doesn't seem to be the case here.
The SSC meet-up during Scott's meetups everywhere tour drew over 140 people. So there's a bunch of rationalists, but not any hubs. (Though there is a group house in Cambridge that runs LW meetups.)
Boston resident here, so I thought I'd add some more points and further emphasize some things.
So Andrew Wiles's genius was in showing there were no unexpected obstructions for the "likely" outcome to be true. That's why the proof is so hard: he was trying to prove something very "likely", and show an absence of structure, rather than a presence, without knowing what that structure could be.
This is a poor description of Wiles's proof; in fact, I would call it diametrically wrong. Wiles proved the presence of a very rigid structure - not the absence - and the presence of this structure implied FLT via the work o... (read more)