Is the reference to footnote 1 missing?
Thanks. By "smaller miracle," are you referring to the case that Julia's estimates are wrong? Or something else?
Agreed that expecting a high fraction of observers to survive a nuclear war makes anthropic selection a less-appealing explanation. Would be interesting to see the numbers.
I've always thought the British style puts an awkward amount of space between a comma or period and the word preceding it. It's even worse if you start using it with American-style double quotes.
Interesting discussion here on blog of the Chicago Manual of Style, which supports the American convention:
But notice how the commas and the period in the example of Chicago style appear consistently right next to the words they follow [...], creating a pleasing uniformity along the baseline. In British style, placement is interrupted by the quotation marks, though
I personally think quotation-over-punctuation would solve this nicely. Here's an example from someone who managed to have his TeX documents do exactly that:
Tried this today. Had high hopes but it turned out to be pretty uncomfortable for me, even with just one pit.
Agreed, but code generation is a more natural fit for a GPT-style language model. GPT-3 and Codex use massive training sets; I would guess that the corpus of human code reviews is not nearly so big.
Really interesting. How would you say the people there respond (or would respond) to EA ideas?
The fraction of LW readers who are non-cisgender is much more than 1/20,000. Respondents to the 2020 SSC survey were 94.5% cisgender, 2.5% transgender, 3% other.
Really appreciated all ~16,000 words. For what it's worth, I agree with what Pablo said above.
The parts about your ideological journey were quite fun to read. Reminded me of HPMOR Harry learning partial transfiguration—maybe in that he finds a way to see category boundaries that others can't.
I'd be interested to hear more about why you think social transition "doesn't seem like a smart move". I read some of your posts on gender categories, and I feel like I'm agreeing for the most part but losing you in the conclusions. I haven't read much about this, so f... (read more)
It was great, thanks for asking!
In all seriousness, I am hoping to make a change bigger than just the one nap. I do procrastinate going to bed, and you've reminded me that the ill-effects of that might be much bigger than what I usually notice (e.g., long-term health problems, or having less mental energy even when I don't notice feeling tired). The first thing I want to try is measuring how much sleep I get. I installed a sleep tracking app (Sleep Cycle) but I haven't yet had enough time to see if it will give me the data I want, or if it will affect my habits.
This convinced me to take a nap.
Supporting your point, the ACX post on COVID and Vitamin D cites this study finding that Vitamin D levels are relatively stable.
Relevant from the abstract: "The 25(OH)D levels were correlated between visits 2 and 3 (3 y interval) among whites (r = 0.73) and blacks (r = 0.66)."
I don’t know why this doesn’t happen in real life, beyond a general sense that whatever weighting function we use isn’t perfectly Bayesian and doesn’t fit in the class I would call “reasonable”. I realize this is a weakness of this model and something that needs further study.
I'll take a stab at this.
You've got a prior, P(dog I meet is dangerous) = 0.99. (Maybe in 99 of your last 100 encounters with dogs, you determined that the dog was dangerous.) You've also got a sensation, "dog is wagging its tail," and some associated conditional probabilities. Your b... (read more)
I think the usual solution there would be for Eliezer to set a reserve price (to avoid the problem of the second-lowest bid exceeding his comfortably-willing-to-pay range).
I’m not saying that major governments keep doing this without any good reason, because I’ve already documented that. There’s the trivial case that everyone thinks it’s not ‘safe’ to give the vaccine to children yet. Many also have legitimate concerns about people who are old and in sufficiently poor health, and governments keep imposing various age rules on eligibility citing safety concerns.
Minor point: I think you might've misread this one? The Facebook policy would allow a claim like "it's not safe to give the vaccine to children" because it does ... (read more)