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The sad state of Rationality Zürich - Effective Altruism Zürich included

Thank you for the offer Elo, atm I am trying to catch & hold the hot potato (Shoutout to Duncan for posting the community space principles!), but I will contact you for additional advice regarding mediating as my toolbox can use a few hammers more ^

The sad state of Rationality Zürich - Effective Altruism Zürich included

Dear Roland,

thank you for sharing.

Full disclaimer: My name is Florian and I'm a somewhat regular attendee of the Zurich meetups and know everyone involved. I just met Roland in person as I decided he needed it most at this moment. I want to talk to everyone else involved – full confidentiality ensured by the gods of signaling – and then decide if this event was a feature or a bug of the community in question and take things from there, based on that decision. Of course, again, with the full consent of everyone involved.

(I am sure there is some kind of... (read more)

3roland4yDear Florian, thanks for taking your time to meet me. :)
The Superstar Effect

Thank you for your article, I really liked the optimism I felt conveyed from the paragraph about beating the superstar.

(I have my own caveat here, it does not pertain to the level of the easiness of the necessary plans or their implementation - in my experience it's much more the coordination problems that throw a wrench into these schemes: You are going to invariably need more people on the set; and you're going to end up spending factorially more time on explaining what exactly on earth you want to do) I notice though that most superstars didn't optimise... (read more)

2adamzerner7yYes, I have been talking about optimizing the teaching side. Optimizing the learning side would be great as well! I don't really have any insightful thoughts on that though. Given infinite resources? Dependency tree!!! I'd build an online resource that does the following. Each node is a micro-concept. The nodes are linked according to their dependencies (to know A, you need to know B). And each node has a lesson/explanation, a test to see if the student understands the corresponding concept, and some practice exercises and projects. It'd take a ton of resources to organize the information properly, produce all of the explanations, tests, exercises... do it well, iterate etc. As for practicality - http://lesswrong.com/lw/lh6/the_superstar_effect/bt7d [http://lesswrong.com/lw/lh6/the_superstar_effect/bt7d] See the above comment about practicality (that's the best I've got).
Understanding Who You Really Are

I am so sorry for this comment: but Patañjali does immediately spring to my mind. I think he had prettily answered the question with: "not much; nothing special". I wonder why it kept being found useful after being answered that clearly. (I still sometimes catch myself using it when dating; its usefulness there does not increase though) Maybe it's perceived worth lies beyond its meaning and the hope of getting an answer there is connected to the hope of getting an answer for "What is the awesomest version of future me? Which traits, virtues and potentials (Hidden and known) did it focus on?" (oh wait I'm going to steal that question from myself and put it to real use)

2therufs7yThanks! It was a lot of work and anxiety, but I still feel like I figured out a cheat code. :D
November 2014 Monthly Bragging Thread

I have learnt to love myself. (For those cringing at the wording: Everything I ever will do will be informed by my total acceptance of all my faculties.)

1polymathwannabe7yUpvoted for noncringeworthiness.
Bayes Academy: Development report 1

That's awesome you are working on this!! I really would love to play it, with little regard to the outcome ( I pit it somewhere between quite interesting and totally super helpful) I wondered though whether you could make the player tally the probabilities himself and keep the scorings hidden yet allow taking notes ("hard mode"? and "hell" with no prior info on time limits? haha I can totally see being hit by the planning fallacy when trying to figure that one out for the first few times) I also imagine leaving the graphics away for now seems like the sane thing to do, even if you might want to think about it again after it is finished. Because of spreading the art.

2Kaj_Sotala7yI did think about something like the "hard mode" but left it out as infeasible right now. Maybe at some point. :)
Crossing the History-Lessons Threshold

But are there testable hypotheses in history? I just really want to know, because I have seen this argumentation pattern that I'd love to call 'instant historicising' whereas an argumenter says ' Oh this was a totally different situation and has so nothing to do with this other situation so we shouldn't even ever compare' whereas my mind goes bing - .

3Lumifer7yI don't think there are testable hypotheses in history, though there are certainly falsifiable ones in the sense that they could be shown wrong (which does NOT mean they could be proven right). A simple example is the hypothesis that Columbus was the first European to discover the New World. It was successfully falsified by finding a Viking settlement in Newfoundland. However if you say that, for example, the main cause of WW1 was the Great Power rivalry, well, I don't know how that could (realistically) be falsified.
3lalaithion7yIt would be easy to construct situations where historians could have opportunities to make and test hypotheses. Just find a section of history they don't know anything about, and give them a summary of 99 years, and ask them to predict what happens in the 100th. Or give them a summary of a couple years and ask them to fill in more complex details. Or give them descriptions of what happened on either side of a year, and ask them to figure out what happens during that year. Then see if they predict accurate things.
Crossing the History-Lessons Threshold

Yes i wanted to especially bring Ferguson up. But I wonder how he tests his hypotheses. (I haven't read anything yet, just had the luck to stumble upon his oeuvre on youtube - and that was that for my workplace concentration..)

On Caring

Thank You for this write-up; I really like the structure of it actually managing to present the evolution of an idea. Agreeing with more or less of the content, I often find myself posing the question whether I - and seven billion others - could save the world with my, our own hands. (I am beginning to see utilons even in my work as an artist, but that belongs into a wholly different post) This is a question for the ones like me, not earning much, and - without further and serious reclusion, reinvention and reorientation - not going to earn much, ever: Do ... (read more)

Levels of Action

You could describe my childhood the same way as well, though the distance to others did not come from forced separation but rather through an increasing bewilderment with group decision processes. Oh, and from being myself, which is incredibly irritating to just about everyone on this planet :)

Edit: I became an architect. I was very interested in the sciences but apalled by the artlessness of many of the members of this community. Then I discovered that the state of the architect community was not much better, it only seemed so through the virtue of emulation..

Gauging interest for a Zurich, Switzerland meetup group

There will be a meetup taking place this wednesday the 21st of may at 19:30; at the Kronenhalle-Bar (only place I know which is silent enough to allow for conversations not held at the top of one's lungs) I will distribute this as PM for everyone I can recognise as Zurich-based as I don't have Karma enough for even the smallest sigh in the discussion section :)

1roland8ySee the official link here: http://lesswrong.com/meetups/10j [http://lesswrong.com/meetups/10j]