I don't like this defense for two reasons. One, I don't se why the same argument doesn't apply to the role Eliezer has already adopted as an early and insistent voice of concern. Being deliberately vague on some types of predictions doesn't change the fact that his name is synonymous with AI doomsaying. Second, we're talking about a person whose whole brand is built around intellectual transparency and reflection; if Eliezer's predictive model of AI development contains relevant deficiencies, I wish to believe that Eliezer's predictive model of AI developm... (read more)
Three pillars; body, mind, environment.
Body - A varied diet including lots of plants and a mix of proteins— with 5 or 6 figures to spend a month you never need to eat another low-quality convenience meal. An appropriate exercise routine for the subject's level, incorporating at least some light strength training and adding modules as the habits become ingrained and sustainable (candidate exercises include yoga, jogging, crossfit, and kickboxing in no particular order). Sleep hygiene— 6-8 hours on a consistent schedule according to the subject's needs. Quit... (read more)
I don't agree with this as a principle, although it may be a correct output. I think the notion of "a decent default" misses the mark compared to "think about your audience and the key elements of your message before deciding your form and tone."
To use a simple metaphor, if you need to anchor two pieces of wood together, a hammer and nails are usually going to be the quickest and cheapest way to do it. A drill and screws are often overkill. However I don't think that makes the hammer and nails the default; I think it makes them the correct tool in the majo... (read more)
I'm not the OP, but I bite that bullet all day long. My parents' last wishes are only relevant in two ways that I can see:
Their values are congruent with my own. If my parents last wishes are morally repugnant to me I certainly feel no obligation to help execute those wishes. Thankfully, in real life my parents values and wishes are fairly congruent with my own, so their request is likely to be something I could evaluate as worthy on its own terms; no obligation needed.
I wish to uphold a norm of last wishes being fulfilled. This has to meet a minimum
Facts and data are of limited use without a paradigm to conceptualize them. If you have some you think are particularly illuminative though by all means share them here.
As a layperson, the problem has been that my ability to figure out what's true relies on being able to evaluate subject-matter experts respective reliability on the technical elements of alignment. I've lurked in this community a long time; I've read the Sequences and watched the Robert Miles videos. I can offer a passing explanation of what the corrigibility problem is, or why ELK might be important.
None of that seems to count for much. Yitz made what I thought was a very lucid post from a similar level of knowledge, trying to bridge that gap, and got mos... (read more)
I agree. I find myself in an epistemic state somewhat like: "I see some good arguments for X. I can't think of any particular counter-argument that makes me confident that X is false. If X is true, it implies there are high-value ways of spending my time that I am not currently doing. Plenty of smart people I know/read believe X; but plenty do not"
It sounds like that should maybe be enough to coax me into taking action about X. But the problem is that I don't think it's that hard to put me in this kind of epistemic state. Eg, if I were to read the right bl... (read more)
This indicates a range of .05 to .40. That's congruent with my experience in the ag industry; farmers tend to be risk-averse concerning price volatility and as such rarely scale up total production massively.
You can hedge against that volatility to some extent by signing purchase contracts in the spring during planting, but buyers obviously offer such contracts based on their own desire to not be stuck buying high at harvest time, so the hedging can't totally resolve the problem.
There's also the agr... (read more)
I don't understand how this isn't just making friends and encouraging the formation of friend groups based on common interests.
I mostly agree with swarriner, and I want to add that writing out more explicit strategies for making and maintaining friends is a public good.
The "case clinic" idea seems good. This sometimes naturally emerges among my friends, and trying to do it more would probably be net positive in my social circles.
For the record, ISO 3103 is in no way optimized for a tasty cup of tea; it's explicitly standardized. Six minutes of brewing with boiling water can "scorch" certain teas by over-extracting tannins and other bitter compounds. If you dislike tea there's a decent chance you would like it better with shorter brews or lower temperature water (I use 90C water for my black teas and 85C for greens, for example).
I find myself concerned. Steven Pinker's past work has been infamously vulnerable to spot-checks of citations, leading me to heavily discount any given factual claims he makes. Is there reason to think he has made an effort here that will be any better constructed?
I don't necessarily agree with your impression of the McAfee thing. The man was by all accounts a very strange person; it doesn't seem overly credulous to think that he might have been both suicidal and paranoid about being murdered and made to look like a suicide.
Your notation is confusing but I achieved a similar result.
>It seems to me much safer to lay the burden of proof on the moral indulgence--at very least, the burden of proof shouldn't always rest on the demands of conscience.
I think I disagree. It seems to me that moral claims don't exist in a vacuum, they require a combination of asserted values and contextualizing facts. If the contextualizing facts are not established, the asserted value is irrelevant. For instance, I might claim that we have a moral duty not to brush our hair because it produces static electricity, and static electricity is a painful e... (read more)
One human's moral arrogance is another human's Occam's razor. The evidence suggests to me, on grounds of both observation (very small organisms demonstrate very simple behaviour not consistent with a high level awareness) and theory (very small organisms have extremely minimal sensory/nervous architecture to contain qualia) that dust-mites are morally irrelevant, and the chance that I am mistaken in my opinion amounts to a Pascal's Mugging.
"I recently read an essay by Peter Singer, Ethics Beyond Species and Beyond Instincts, in which he defined the moral as that which is universalizable, in this sense: “We can distinguish the moral from the nonmoral by appeal to the idea that when we think, judge, or act within the realm of the moral, we do so in a manner that we are prepared to apply to all others who are similarly placed.”
I read that, sat back, and said to myself: “I cannot do morality.”
I cannot do it in the same sense that an alcoholic cannot drink, and a person with an eating di... (read more)
I am not a true expert, but there is one major element of this narrative that most coverage leaves out— no matter what happens to the short-sellers, the price of Gamestop and other short squeezed stocks must eventually normalize to a "truer" valuation.
I have seen a truly alarming lack of recognition of this fact, with some people apparently believing the squeezed price is the new normal for GME. Here's why that probably isn't the case:
The value of a stock is tied to two factors. One is (broadly) the cash flows one can expect to receive in the form of divid... (read more)
Saskatchewanian checking in here. As with your Vancouver Island example, there's a lot of heterogeneity here too. The south of the province, where I grew up, has extremely low numbers of cases even relative to the sparse rural population, while anywhere north of Saskatoon where I currently live is doing fairly badly relative to their sparse rural population. I don't have a strong gears-level understanding of why this should be except some vague notion that the North sees more traffic entering and exiting in the course of resource extraction industries, and close living quarters associated with the same. Plus something something rampant spread in First Nations which I don't even want to get into.
The notion of weirdness points has never spoken to me, personally, because it seems to collapse a lot of social nuance into a singular dichotomy of weird/not weird, and furthermore that weirdness is in some sense measurable and fungible. Neither, I think, is true, and the framework ought to be dissolved. So what's goes into a "weirdness point"?
Are there any resources that amount to "80,000 Hours for (hopefully reformed) underachievers"? I've been weighing the possibility of going back to school in the hopes of getting into a higher-impact field, but my academic resume from my bachelor's is pretty lackluster, leaving me unsure where to start reconstruction. My mental health and general level of conscientiousness are both considerably improved from my younger years so I'm optimistic I can exceed my past self.
Not necessarily. If I am an academic whose research is undermined by bias, I may be irrational but not stupid, and if I am in a social environment where certain signals of stupid beliefs are advantageous, I may be stupid but not irrational. It seems to be the latter is more what the author is getting at.
See my comments above for some discussion of this topic. Broadly speaking we do know how to keep farmland productive but there are uncaptured externalities and other inadequacies to be accounted for.
That's fair, and I'm grumbling less as an ag scientist or policy person than as a layperson born and raised in the ag industry. It is my opinion that the commercial ag industry in my country both contains inadequacies and is a system of no free energy, to borrow from Inadequate Equilibria.
To elaborate, I observe the following facts:
Agricultural practice is my Gell-Mann pet peeve. While it's true that fertilizer and pest control are currently central to large swaths of the commercial ag industry, this is not necessarily a case of pure necessity so much as local maxima— for many crops we could reduce dependence on synthetic fertilizers and pesticides by integrating livestock, multi-cropping land, etc. Some of them are also ecologically unsustainable as practiced and may eventually need to be replaced.
That said, this doesn't actually detract from the central point; I would very much lik... (read more)
This isn't critiquing the claim, though. Yes, there are alternatives that are available, but those alternatives - multi-cropping, integrating livestock, etc. are more labor intensive, and will produce less over the short term. And I'm very skeptical that the maximum is only local - have you found evidence that you can use land more efficiently, while keeping labor minimal, and produce more? Because if you did, there's a multi-billion dollar market for doing that. Does that make the alternatives useless, or bad ideas? Not at all, and I agree that changes ar... (read more)
Seems like this question relies on a huge number of technical questions and assumptions such that a back of the envelope estimate would be meaningless and a rigorous examination would be highly difficult, nigh impossible. Natural albedo fluctuates wildly on a global scale from year to year and there are so many confounding factors and feedback systems in global climate that it seems insane to even estimate how much artificial mirror surface is needed, let alone how much it would cost not just to launch all that material, but to coordinate orbital patterns and control systems for it.
Elsewherism strike me as the most usable of these options for aesthetic reasons. Spooky Axiology at a Distance is the name of my new prog rock band.
Duct tape is a stereotype, but having a few kinds of tape including duct, electrical, and athletic can be useful. Less so for building objects like you've shown but often for fixing or sealing.
Steel wire is cheap and sometimes comes in handy for providing simple shaped objects or securing pieces together flexibly.
Wooden pallets can often be acquired for free and either used as-is (I have two serving as gardening boxes in my backyard) or stripped down for wood.
Paint! Anything you build can be made 75% less obviously DIY with the appropriate coat of pai... (read more)
No, don't do this. If you threaten someone with a higher level of violence than you can deliver, it's more likely they try to pre-emptively attack you (i.e. shoot you first) and you will have no defense against this. If you cannot win a violent encounter then compliance is generally the safest strategy.
Droplets would be number one on my list of transmission vectors for people other than the hand hygiene intensive cases I mentioned, yes.
I don't want to come down against good hygiene practices, exactly, but my prior is that this is a completely unimportant change for most people to make. The waterline of sanitary practices in Western nations is high enough that increasing the frequency and thoroughness of the average person's handwashing seems likely to be subject to serious diminishing returns.
Consider that we're starting from a status quo where most people's hands are washed 3-5 times a day, even if lazily. Yeah it's not 100% effective, but I don't think it... (read more)
> Consider that we're starting from a status quo where most people's hands are washed 3-5 times a day, even if lazily.
Disagree, many people probably fall below this.
I'll agree that "they couldn't pay you enough" is technically hyperbole but I can't imagine taking that sin seriously enough that it damages the credibility of the argument.
As for the message, here's how I interpret the thesis: "immoral maze work environments have large hedonic costs of a type that are not well offset by monetary compensation (or other promised rewards)". Which is distinct from, although related to, "money doesn't buy happiness".
I also disagree that all advice has to be positive to be ... (read more)