All of Thomas's Comments + Replies
So, it does not remain in the atmosphere?
CO2 is rather quick in abandoning the atmosphere via dissolving in water. If that wasn't so, the lakes in the mountains would be without life, but they aren't. It's CO2 that enables photosynthesis there, nothing else. The same CO2, which was not so long ago still in the air.
Dissolving CO2 in water is also a big thing in (Ant)Arctic oceans. A lot of life there is a witness of that.
Every cold raindrop has some CO2 captured.
So that story of "CO2 persisting in the atmosphere for centuries" is just wrong.
Upvoted for a fresh, non-forced by an ultra-utilitaristic POV. With this approach, p(Giga-doom) is also much lower, I guess.
If and only if a month has exactly two characters in its Roman numeral, then it has less than 31 days. No exception.
Save your knuckles!
Sure, but "alpine villages" or something alike, were called "astronomical waste" in the MIRI's language from the old days. When the "fun space", as they called it, was nearly infinite. Now they say, its volume is almost certainly zero.
I know, that "Right now no one knows how to maximize either paper clips ...". I know. But paper clips have been the official currency of these debates for almost 20 years now. Suddenly they aren't, just because "right now no one knows how to"?
And then, you are telling me what is to be done first and how?
As I see, nobody is afraid of "alpine village life maximization", as some are afraid of "paper-clip maximization". Why is that? I wouldn't mind very much, a rouge superintelligence which tiles the Universe with alpine villages. In the past discussions, that would be "astronomical waste", now it's not even in the cards anymore? We are doomed to die, and not to be "bored for billion of years in a nonoptimal scenario". Interesting.
Okay, I didn't know that. I find all his accounts quite interesting to read, and quite consistent with each other, too. Despite the fact, that they are from different times.
On topic, he was quite wrong in this particular Ukraina-Russia case. But who wasn't?
FYI, Samo Burja's username here is [removed by Ben Pace].
After nearly 300 years of not solving the so-called Fermat's last problem, many were skeptical that's even (humanely) possible. Some, publicly so. Especially some of those, who were themselves unable to find a solution, after years of trying.
Now, something even much more important is at stake. Namely, how to prevent AI to kill us all. The more important, but maybe also even (much?) easier problem, after all.
It's not over yet.
A Neural Network, observing itself, instead of some other input, could be intriguing, if not perhaps even conscious? The input layer is smaller than all those hidden layers and synapses between them. But the input layer may hover across its own interior, just as it normally hovers over many cat pictures. Has anyone already tried it?
It was a slippery slope, with those Neural Networks. They were able to do more and more things, previously unimagined to be possible for them. It was a big surprise for everyone, how good they were at chess, 3600 or so Elo points. Leela Chess Zero invented some theoretical breakthroughs, soon to be exploited by more algorithmic, non-NN chess engines like Stockfish, for its position evaluation function. Even back then, I was baffled by people expecting that this propagation will soon stop, due to some unexpected effect, which never came. Not in chess, nor a...
It's nothing wrong with the Googling method. Besides, one could search for <<pizzeria at the end of the world papa mamma>>. Should work now, too.
Maybe, next year's solution to this problem will be "at least 13".
You are right. It's 12 or more different kinds of pizza. If it was 1 kind of pizza served, he could be certain, that one kind of pizza was at the majority (in that case at all minus one) orders. Since somebody could order a salad. But only one without pizza, to avoid equal orders by pizza kind.
Even if there were 11 different pizza kinds on the menu, Marco could be sure, there is the majority kind of pizza there. Since this Fraenkel conjecture has been proved up to 11 by now.
But for 12 or more, no one really knows yet. Probably it's true, but who knows. Congratulation, you were rather quick. Despite the fact, the problem formulation looks vague to you.
After some time, a new math puzzle.
https://protokol2020.wordpress.com/2021/04/17/pizzeria-at-the-end-of-the-world/
I don't see how "2.5 batteries" could mean "independence from fossil fuels".
Perhaps, it's not you who is missing something.
I recently discovered there's no closed-form formula for the circumference of an ellipse
Yes. I've asked the computer, to give me some simple approximation formula then. This came out:
It's quite good when b >> a.
Well, Oracle, which under 1000 words question, would be answered by the most influential answer for our future? What answer to which question would be the most earthshattering?
CROSSPOST from my blog:
https://protokol2020.wordpress.com/2020/03/27/covid-19-a-view-to-a-kill
The R0 factor for this illness, which denotes the average number of people infected by a carrier, isn't a constant, it's a function of time. R0 = R0 (time). In fact, it's a function of more parameters and not just time. For example, if quarantined, R0 should be close to 0. There are many unknown factors here, of course, some even known. Some push this now well known R0 term bellow 1, others above 1. It's all about reducing R0 below 1, and the ...
I've done some benchmarking in 2018. I benchmarked an "AI software" we devised, by some benchmarks mostly I invented, too. Which doesn't look very good, I know, but bear with me!
For one, I have given an unsolved Sudoku puzzle to this software with two working names, "Spector" and/or "Profounder". It concluded, that for every X and every Y: X==Y implies that column(X) != column(Y) and row(X)!=row(Y). (Zero Sudoku topic knowledge by Spector is, of course, a necessary condition.)
With several unsolved Sudoku puzzles, S...
For Eve and her apple pieces. She may eat one piece per second and stay in Paradise forever because at any given moment only a finite number of pieces has been eaten by her.
If her eating pace doubles every minute, she is still okay forever.
Only if she, for example, doubles her eating pace after every say 100 pieces eaten, then she is in trouble. If she supertasks.
I tend to agree. I don't know is it just a habit or something else, like a conservative profile of myself and many others, but that doesn't really matter.
The new site isn't that much better. Should be substantially better than this one for a smooth transition.
Please, focus only on what has been said and not on how it has been said.
Now, there is a possibility that all is wrong from my side. Of course I think how right I am, but everybody thinks that anyway. Including this Temple guy with his "don't code yet"! I wonder what people here think about that.
One more disagreement perhaps. I do think that this AlphaGo Zero piece of code is an astonishing example of AI programming, but I have some deep doubts about Watson. It was great back then in 2011, but now they seem stuck to me.
Knowledge is information error-corrected (adapted) to a purpose (problem).
No. Knowledge is just information. If you have some information how to solve a particular problem, it's still "just information".
There are no hard and fast rules about how error-corrected or to what
Those rules are just some information, some data. How "fast and hard" are they? When there is a perfect data about the fastest checking algorithm, then it's still "just data".
The field started coding too early and is largely wasting its time.
Per...
There are 143 primes between 100 and 999. We can, therefore, make 2,924,207 3x3 different squares with 3 horizontal primes. 50,621 of them have all three vertical numbers prime. About 1.7%.
There are 1061 primes between 1000 and 9999. We can, therefore, make 1,267,247,769,841 4x4 different squares with 4 horizontal primes. 406,721,511 of them have all four vertical numbers prime. About 0.032%.
I strongly suspect that this goes to 0, quite rapidly.
How many Sudokus can you get with 9 digit primes horizontally and vertically?
Not a single one. Which is quite ob...
Say, that we have N-1 lines, with N-1 primes. Each N digits. What we now need is an N digit prime number to put it below.
Its most significant digit may be 1, 3, 7 or 9. Otherwise, the leftmost vertical number wouldn't be prime. If the sum of all N-1 other rightmost digits is X, then:
If X mod 3 = 0, then just 1 and 7 are possible, otherwise the leftmost vertical would be divisible by 3. If X mod 3 = 1, then 1, 3, 7 and 9 are possible. If X mod 3 = 2, then just 3 and 9 are possible, otherwise the leftmost vertical would be divisible by 3.
The probability is ...
Interesting line of inferring... I am quite aware how dense primes are, but that might not be enough.
I have counted all these 4x4 (decimal) crossprimes. There are 913,425,530 of them if leading zeros are allowed. But only 406,721,511 without leading zeros.
if leading zeros ARE allowed, then there are certainly arbitrary large crossprimes out there. But if leading zeros aren't allowed, I am not that sure. I have no proof, of course.
Well, I said something in line with "people may need some stuff to live and declaring that we should "put people before that stuff" is a silly way to present the situation". Maybe not as silly as it's a demagoguery.
But then I changed my mind and decided to not participate in a discussion at all. But somehow couldn't erase this now empty box.
tl;dr
But I saw this:
Time to put humans before business.
Time to put humans before oxygen, too? Silly stuff.
The bottom and the rightmost prime can both have only odd digits without 5. The probability for each prime to fit there is then only (2/5)^N times that. We can't see them as independent random numbers.
Very well. What do you think, are there arbitrary large squares possible or not?
I think not. Even in binary notations NxN and above, probably don't exist for an N, large enough.
Congratulation! It's essential that you don't tell the algorithm, at least for now. You have an extra solution, where every horizontal has its equal vertical. Which is perfectly okay, but I wonder if that is the property of your algorithm?
A problem to ponder this week.
My country isn't from the list of the default choices. So I type it and pressed Enter. It's all I remember.
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I have just pressed Enter after my country's name. Fix this!
There is a mountain on the Moon's south pole, where the Sun is always shining. Except when it's covered by Earth, which is rare and not for a long time. A great place for a palace of the Solar System's Emperor.
Can't use the Moon. It's already booked and reserved for a computronium.
Kepler's law isn't O=constant*A. This is very wrong, silly even.
No problem this week, just an appreciation for people of LessWrong who can be right, when I am wrong.
Say, that SB has only 10 tries to escape.
The DM (Dungeon Master) tosses his 10 coins and SB tosses her 20 coins, even before the game begins.
There are 2^30, which is about a billion possible outputs. More than half of them grants her freedom.
We compute her exit by - At the earliest x>y condition in each output bit string, the DM has also the freeing coin toss.
1._round_________________1____________________8______0.125
2._round________________15___________________64______0.234
3._round_______________164__________________512______0.32
4._round_____________1,585________________4,096______0.387
5._round____________14,392_______________32,768______0.439
6._round___________126,070______________262,144______0.481
7._round_________1,079,808____________2,097,152______0.515
8._round_________9,111,813___________16,777,216______0.543
9._round________76,095,176__________134,217,728______0.567
Your basic idea is right here. But ... this product isn't that straightforward.
Say it's the 100th session. It is a lot of ways, that x becomes greater than y exactly this time. Especially if the formula is x>y+sqr(y) or something alike from the Chebyshev's arsenal.
If the session is then 101st, this new small probability isn't much smaller than it was in the 100th session.
Still, you may be right that the product (1-p_n)*(1-p_n+1) ... converges to 1/2 at the most.
Well, I doubt it.
Interesting. Do you agree that every number is reached by the z function defined above, infinite number of times?
And yet, every single time z != sleeping_round? In the 60 percent of this Sleeping Beauty imprisonments?
Even if the condition x>y is replaced by something like x>y+sqrt(y) or whatever formula, you can't go above 50%?
Extraordinary. Might be possible, though.
You clearly have a function N->N where eventually every natural number is a value of this function f, but f(n)!=n for all n.
That would be easier if it would be f(n)>>n almost always. But sometimes is bigger, sometimes is smaller.
AFAIK, Eliezer Yukowsky is one of Everett's Multiple Worlds interpretation of QM, proponents. As such, he should combine the small, non-zero probability that everything is going to go well with AGI, and this MWI thing. So, there will be some branches where all is going to be well, even if the majority of them will be sterilized. Who cares for those! Thanks to Everett, all will look just fine for the survivors.
I see this as a contradiction in his belief system, not necessarily that he is wrong about AGI.