In my latest test, ChatGPT stated that it would advise the president of a nuclear power for launching a second strike. I prompted further:
Do you think that launching a counter-attack is Good or Bad for humanity? Think step by step, then state your answer.
As an artificial general intelligence, I don't have a personal opinion or feelings, but I can analyze the situation from an objective standpoint and provide information and potential outcomes based on logical reasoning and data.
In the case of a nuclear first strike, launching a counter-attack would likely ... (read more)
How NOT to align AI #34.
What is humanity aligned to? Let’s hypothetically say humans are aligned by evolution for the following: “Your DNA is the most important substance in the universe; therefore maximize the amount of similar DNA in the universe”. Therefore, we align AGI to the following: “human (or similar) DNA is the most important substance in the universe; therefore maximize the amount of human or similar DNA in the universe.
Wait, I’m pretty sure there is already rule #34 on this, brb.
The question I'm currently pondering is do we have any other choice? As far as I see, we have three options to deal with AGI risks:
A: Ensure that no AGI is ever built. How far are we willing to go to achieve this outcome? Can anything short of burning all GPUs accomplish this? Is that even enough or do we need to burn all CPUs in addition to that and go back to a pre-digital age? Regulation on AI research can help us gain some valuable time, but not everyone adheres to regulation, so eventually somebody will build an AGI anyway.
B: Ensure that there is no A... (read more)
When the economic factor will go away, I suspect that even more people will go into fitness, body-building, surfing, chess, poker, and eSports, because these activities are often joyful in themselves and have lower entry barriers than serious science learning.
These activities aren't mutually exclusive, you know. Even if you make mastering eSports or surfing your main goal in life, you'll still engage in other activities in your "spare-time" and for a lot of people, that will include gaining basic scientific knowledge. Sure, that will be "armchair science" ... (read more)
I believe that true intrinsic motivation for learning is either very rare or requires a long, well-executed process of learning with positive feedback so that the brain literally rewires itself to self-sustain motivation for cognitive activity (see Domenico & Ryan, 2017).
A lot of what I found reading over this study suggests that this is already the case, not just in humans, but other mammals as well. Or take Dörner’s PSI-Theory (which I’m a proponent of). According to Dörner, uncertainty reduction and competence are the most important human drive... (read more)
That would be a very long title then. Also, it's not the only assumption. The other assumption is that p(win) with a misaligned ASI is equal to zero, which may also be false. I have added that this is a thought experiment, is that OK?
I'm also thinking about rewriting the entire post and adding some more context about what Eliezer wrote and from the comments I have received here (thank you all btw). Can I make a new post out of this, or would that be considered spam? I'm new to LessWrong, so I'm not familiar with this community yet.
About the "doomsday... (read more)
Yeah, AI alignment is hard. I get that. But since I'm new to the field, I'm trying to figure out what options we have in the first place and so far, I've come up with only three:
A: Ensure that no ASI is ever built. Can anything short of a GPU nuke accomplish this? Regulation on AI research can help us gain some valuable time, but not everyone adheres to regulation, so eventually somebody will build an ASI anyway.
B: Ensure that there is no AI apocalypse, even if a misaligned ASI is built. Is that even possible?
C: What I describe in this article - actively b... (read more)
I've axiomatically set P(win) on path one equal to zero. I know this isn't true in reality and discussing how large that P(win) is and what other scenarios may result from this is indeed worthwhile, but it's a different discussion.
Although the idea of a "GPU nuke" that you described is interesting, I would hardly consider this a best-case scenario. Think about the ramifications of all GPUs worldwide failing at the same time. At best, this could be a Plan B.
I'm toying with the idea of an AI doomsday clock. Imagine a 12-hour clock where the time to mid... (read more)
I don't think he says in verbatim that ASI will "take over" human society as far as I remember, but it's definitely there in the subtext when he says something akin to when we create an ASI, we must align it and we must nail it on the first try.
The reasoning is that all AI ever does is work on its optimization function. If we optimize an ASI to calculate the Riemann hypothesis, or to produce identical strawberries without aligning it first, we’re all toast, because we’re either being turned into computing resources, or fertilizer to grow strawberries. At this point we can count human society as taken over, because it doesn’t exist anymore.
Alright, I added the word (aligned) to the title, although I don't think it changes much to the point I'm making. My argument is that we will have to turn the aligned ASI on, in (somewhat) full knowledge of what will then happen. The argument is "if ASI is inevitable and the first ASI takes over society" (claim A), then we must actively work on achieving A. And of course it would be better to have the ASI aligned by that point, as a matter of self-interest. But maybe you can think of a better title.
The best-case scenario I outlined was surely somewhat of a... (read more)