All of WillPetillo's Comments + Replies

I'd like to add some nuance to the "innocent until proven guilty" assumption in the concluding remarks.

Standard of evidence is a major question in legal matters and heavily context-dependent.  "Innocent until proven guilty" is a popular understanding of the standard for criminal guilt and it makes sense for that to be "beyond a reasonable doubt" because the question at hand is whether a state founded on principles of liberty should take away the freedom of one of its citizens.  Other legal disputes, such as in civil liability, have different stan... (read more)

#7: (Scientific) Doomsday Track Records Aren't That Bad

Historically, the vast majority of doomsday claims are based on religious beliefs, whereas only a small minority have been supported by a large fraction of relevant subject matter experts.  If we consider only the latter, we find:

A) Malthusian crisis: false...but not really a doomsday prediction per se.
B) Hole in the ozone layer: true, but averted because of global cooperation in response to early warnings.
C) Climate change: probably true if we did absolutely nothing; probably mostly averted becau... (read more)

1Max TK3mo
Lovely; can I add this to this article if I credit you as the author?