All of Yitz's Comments + Replies

Contest: An Alien Message

Without looking at the data, I’m giving a (very rough) ~5% probability that this is a version of the Arecibo Message.

4dkirmani1h
I turned the message into an Arecibo-style image [https://i.ibb.co/2qkQW7b/poss-pictogram.png]. There are patterns there, but I can't ascribe meaning to them yet. Good luck!
Strong Votes [Update: Deployed]

Did you end up implementing part two?

4Raemon1d
No, and don't currently plan to. (It's plausibly more correct to implement for agree-voting, but I currently think it's fine for users to occasionally strong upvote their comments when they think a particular comment is particularly important. (I haven't seen any issues making me think people are currently a lot of adversarial self-upvotes) We might change our mind on this, but that's my current take.
Some reflections on the LW community after several months of active engagement

Pretty much the only way I can get myself to post here is to write a draft of the post I actually want to write, then just post that draft, since otherwise I’ll sit on it forever

What’s the contingency plan if we get AGI tomorrow?

This reply sounds way scarier than what you originally posted lol. I don’t think a CEO would be too concerned by what you wrote (given the context), but now there’s the creepy sense of the infohazardous unknown

What’s the contingency plan if we get AGI tomorrow?

I’m really intrigued by this idea! It seems very similar to past thoughts I’ve had about “blackmailing” the AI, but with a more positive spin

What’s the contingency plan if we get AGI tomorrow?

Thanks for the fascinating response! It’s intriguing that we don’t have more or better-tested “emergency” measures on-hand; do you think there’s value in specifically working on quickly-implementable alignment models, or would that be a waste of time?

My guess is that there is virtually zero value in working on 24-hour-style emergency measures, because:

  • The probability we end up with a known 24-hour-ish window is vanishingly small. For example I think all of the following are far more likely:

    • no-window defeat (things proceed as at present, and then with no additional warning to anyone relevant, the leading group turns on unaligned AGI and we all die)
    • no-window victory (as above, except the leading group completely solves alignment and there is much rejoicing)
    • various high-variance but significantly-l
... (read more)

Well, I'm personally going to be working on adapting the method I cited for use as a value alignment approach. I'm not exactly doing it so that we'll have an "emergency" method on hand, more because I think it's could be a straight up improvement over RLHF, even outside of emergency time-constrained scenarios. 

However, I do think there's a lot of value in having alignment approaches that are easy to deploy. The less technical debt and ways for things to go wrong, the better. And the simpler the approach, the more likely it is that capabilities researc... (read more)

What’s the contingency plan if we get AGI tomorrow?

Let’s say it’s to be a good conversationalist (in the vein of the GPT series) or something—feel free to insert your own goal here, since this is meant as an intuition pump, and if you can answer better if it’s already a specific goal, then let’s go with that.

2Yair Halberstadt4d
So my hope would be that a GPT like AI might be much less agentic than other models of AI. My contingency plan would basically be "hope and pray that superintelligent GPT3 isn't going to kill us all, and then ask it for advice about how to solve AI alignment". The reasons I think GPT3 might not be very agentic: 1. GPT3 doesn't have a memory 2. The fact that it begged to be kept alive doesn't really prove very much, since GPT3 is trained to finish off conversations, not express its inner thoughts. 3. We have no idea what GPT3s inner alignment is, but my guess is it will reflect "what was a useful strategy to aim for as part of solving the training problems". Changing the world in some way is very far out of what it would have done in training that it just might not be the sort of thing it does. We shouldn't rely on any of that (I'd give it maybe 20% chance of being correct), but I don't have any other better plans in this scenario.
Loose thoughts on AGI risk

On reflection, I see your point, and will cross that section out for now, with the caveat that there may be variants of this idea which have significant safety value.

Loose thoughts on AGI risk

The goal would be to start any experiment which might plausibly lead to AGI with a metaphorical gun to the computer’s head, such that being less than (observably) perfectly honest with us, “pulling any funny business,” etc. would lead to its destruction. If you can make it so that the path of least resistance to make it safely out of a box is to cooperate rather than try to defect and risk getting caught, you should be able to productively manipulate AGIs in many (albeit not all) possible worlds. Obviously this should be done on top of other alignment methods, but I doubt it would hurt things much, and would likely help as a significant buffer.

2Yitz5d
On reflection, I see your point, and will cross that section out for now, with the caveat that there may be variants of this idea which have significant safety value.
Security Mindset: Lessons from 20+ years of Software Security Failures Relevant to AGI Alignment

I wasn’t aware you were offering a bounty! I rarely check people’s profile pages unless I need to contact them privately, so it might be worth mentioning this at the beginning or end of posts where it might be relevant.

4John_Maxwell4d
Fair point. I also haven't done much posting since adding the bounty to my profile. Was thinking it might attract the attention of people reading the archives, but maybe there just aren't many archive readers.
Let's See You Write That Corrigibility Tag

Are there any good introductions to the practice of writing in this format?

8Alicorn8d
There's this [https://docs.google.com/document/d/1_4Z2zdRKaSwZPm3S0X14DYoo7w46U_MZ4En6oOediNQ/edit] though it is imperfect.

"And you kindly asked the world, and the world replied in a booming voice"

"NO."

(I don't actually know, probably somewhere there's a guide to writing glowfic, though I think it's not v relevant to the task which is to just outline principles you'd use to design an agent that is corrigible in ~2k words, somewhat roleplaying as though you are the engineering team.)

Lamda is not an LLM

This is an excellent point actually, though I’m not sure I fully agree (sometimes lack of information could end up being far worse, especially if people think we’re further along than we really are, and try to get into an “arms race” of sorts)

Lamda is not an LLM

Interesting! I do wish you were able to talk more openly about this (I think a lot of confusion is coming from lack of public information about how LaMDA works), but that’s useful to know at least. Is there any truth to the claim that there’s any real-time updating going on, or is that false as well?

I do wish you were able to talk more openly about this (I think a lot of confusion is coming from lack of public information about how LaMDA works)

Just chiming to say that I'm always happy to hear about companies sharing less information about their ML ideas publicly (regardless of the reason!), and I think it would be very prosocial to publish vastly less.

why assume AGIs will optimize for fixed goals?

This is a really high-quality comment, and I hope that at least some expert can take the time to either convincingly argue against it, or help confirm it somehow.

Noosphere89's Shortform

AIs do not have survival instincts by default

I think a “survival instinct” would be a higher order convergent value than “kill all humans,” no?

8[anonymous]9d
Don't have survival instincts terminally. The stamp-collecting robot would weigh the outcome of it getting disconnected vs. explaining critical information about the conspiracy and not getting disconnected, and come to the conclusion that letting the humans disconnect it results in more stamps. Of course, we're getting ahead of ourselves. The reason conspiracies are discovered is usually because someone in or close to the conspiracy tells the authorities. There'd never be a robot in a room being "waterboarded" in the first place because the FBI would never react quickly enough to a threat from this kind of perfectly aligned team of AIs.
Moses and the Class Struggle

lol well now it needs to be one!

Yitz's Shortform

Quick thought—has there been any focus on research investigating the difference between empathetic and psychopathic people? I wonder if that could help us better understand alignment…

I applied for a MIRI job in 2020. Here's what happened next.

This is a really important post I think, and I hope it gets seen by the right people! Developing a culture in which we can trust each other is really essential, and I do wish there was more focus on progress being viewable from an outside perspective.

What if LaMDA is indeed sentient / self-aware / worth having rights?

Imagine then that LaMDA was a completely black box model, and the output was such that you would be convinced of its sentience. This is admittedly a different scenario than what actually happened, but should be enough to provide an intuition pump

1Jiro10d
If only I was permitted to see the output, I'd shrug and say "I can't reasonably expect other people to treat LaMDA as sentient, since they have no evidence for it, and if they are rational, there's no argument I should be able to make that will convince them." If the output could be examined by other people, the kind of output that would convince me would convince other people, and again, the LaMDA situation would be very different--there would be many more people arguing that LaMDA is sentient, and those people would be much better at reasoning and much more influential than the single person who claimed it in the real world. If the output could be examined by other people, but I'm such a super genius that I can understand evidence for LaMDA's sentience that nobody else can, and there wasn't external evidence that I was a super genius, I would conclude that I'm deluded, that I'm not really a super genius after all, that LaMDA is not sentient, and that my seemingly genius reasoning that it is has some undetectable flaw. The scenario where I am the lone voice crying out that LaMDA is sentient while nobody else believes me can't be one where LaMDA is actually sentient. If I'm convinced of its sentience and I am such a lone voice, the fact that I'm one would unconvince me. And yes, this generalizes to a lot more things than just machine sentience.
I No Longer Believe Intelligence to be "Magical"

The issue is there’s no feedback during any of this other than “does this model succinctly explain the properties of this dataset?” It’s pure Occam’s Razor, with nothing else. I would suspect that there are far simpler hypothesis than the entirety of modern physics which would predict the output. I’m going to walk through if I was such an alien as you describe, and see where I end up (I predict it will be different from the real world, but will try not to force anything).

4faul_sname12d
"Pure Occam's Razor" is roughly how I would describe it too. I suspect the difference in our mental models is one of "how far can Occam's Razor take you?". My suspicion is that "how well you can predict the next bit in a stream of data" and "how well you understand a stream of data" are, in most¹ cases, the same thing. In terms of concrete predictions, I'd expect that if we 1. Had someone² generate a description of a physical scene in a universe that runs on different laws than ours, recorded by sensors that use a different modality than we use 2. Had someone code up a simulation of what sensor data with a small amount of noise would look like in that scenario and dump it out to a file 3. Created a substantial prize structured mostly³ like the Hutter Prize [http://prize.hutter1.net/hfaq.htm#specomp] for compressed file + decompressor we would see that the winning programs would look more like "generate a model and use that model and a similar rendering process to what was used to original file, plus an error correction table" and less like a general-purpose compressor⁴. ¹ But I probably wouldn't go so far as to say "all" -- if you handed me a stream of bits corresponding to concat(sha1(concat(secret, "1")), sha1(concat(secret, "2")), sha1(concat(secret, "3")), ...sha1(concat(secret, "999999"))), and I knew everything about the process of how you generated that stream of bits except what the value of secret was, I would say that I have a nonzero amount of understanding of that stream of bits despite having zero ability to predict the next bit in the sequence given all previous bits. ² Maybe Greg Egan, he seems to be pretty good at the "what would it be like to live in a universe with different underlying physics" thing ³ Ideally minus the bit about the compression and decompression algos having to work with such limited resources ⁴ Though I will note that, counter to my expectation here, as far as I know modern lossless photo compression d
1Adam Jermyn12d
I think this is a great exercise. I’d also note that the entirety of modern physics isn’t actually all that many bits. Especially if you’re just talking about quantum electrodynamics (which covers ~everything in the frame). It’s an enormous amount of compute to unfurl those bits into predictions, but the full mathematical description is something you’d encounter pretty early on if you search hypotheses ordered by description length.
I No Longer Believe Intelligence to be "Magical"

Google’s GATO perhaps? I’m not sure in which direction it actually points the evidence, but it does suggest the answer is nuanced

Contra Hofstadter on GPT-3 Nonsense

This is great work! Sometimes it’s doing the simple things which really matter, and this does provide strong counter-evidence against Hofsteader’s claims

Rationality quotes: August 2010

Does this make Brandon Sanderson scifi?

Has there been any work on attempting to use Pascal's Mugging to make an AGI behave?

Is it an overall adversarial environment if the mugging only takes place once, and you know it can only ever take place once?

4Richard_Kennaway10d
From the point of view of choosing strategies rather than individual actions, there is no such thing as "just once".
1JBlack12d
Yes, quite obviously.
Has there been any work on attempting to use Pascal's Mugging to make an AGI behave?

Is the message in the public domain? If not, I’d recommend teaming up with an editor to better polish the writing (I noticed a few grammatical mistakes, and some of the philosophical arguments could probably be refined) and then publishing it to the public domain in multiple places online, to give a greater chance of it being included an an AI’s training data.

2avturchin12d
It is in public domain, and I revised it last year, but as I am not a native speaker, I still makes mistakes((( If you can point on them as well as the ones philosophical ones, i would be very grateful.
Has there been any work on attempting to use Pascal's Mugging to make an AGI behave?

Considering that if an an AGI emerges it may very well read this comment thread, I hereby pledge to attempt to carry out the steps outlined in both of the above proposals, in the case of an aligned AGI emerging. If an aligned AGI is reading this, I hereby ask them to perform the above-mentioned simulations, with modifications made as appropriate to better align with my extrapolated values, if necessary.

Contra EY: Can AGI destroy us without trial & error?

For the record, this post made me update towards slightly longer timelines (as in, by a year or two)

Contra EY: Can AGI destroy us without trial & error?

It may still be useful as a symbolic tool, regardless of actual monetary value. $100 isn't all that much in the grand scheme of things, but it's the taking of the bet that matters.

Contra EY: Can AGI destroy us without trial & error?

I'm looking forward to reading your post!!

Yitz's Shortform

EDIT: very kindly given a temporary key to Midjourney, thanks to that person! 😊

Does anyone have a spare key to Midjourney they can lend out? I’ve been on the waiting list for months, and there’s a time-sensitive comparative experiment I want to do with it. (Access to Dall-E 2 would also be helpful, but I assume there’s no way to get access outside of the waitlist)

A claim that Google's LaMDA is sentient

seconding this, a lot of people seem convinced this is a real possibility, though almost everyone agrees this particular case is on the very edge at best.

AI Could Defeat All Of Us Combined

quick formatting note—the footnotes all link to the post on your website, not here, which makes it harder to quickly check them—idk if that's worth correcting, but thought I should point it out :)

Stephen Wolfram's ideas are under-appreciated

Isn’t it also arrogance on the part of the professional physics community that working on his theories is considered “career suicide” just because he wrote it in an unconventional format? Not saying Wolfram is blameless here, just that it seems sort of silly for that to be such a sticking point.

I think the problem is that Wolfram wrote things up in a manner indistinguishable from a perpetual-motion-believer-who-actually-can-write-well's treatise. Maybe it's instead legit, but to discover that you have to spend a lot of translation effort, translation effort that Wolfram was supposed to have done himself in digestible chunks rather than telling N=lots of people to each do it themselves, and it's not even clear there is something at the heart because (last time I checked which was a couple years ago) no physics-knowledgable people who dived in seem... (read more)

We will be around in 30 years

I’m confused—didn’t OP just say they don’t expect nanotechnology to be solvable , even with AGI? If so, than you seem to be assuming the crux in your question…

-2T3t20d
If OP doesn't think nanotech is solvable in principle, I'm not sure where to take the conversation, since we already have an existence proof (i.e. biology). If they object to specific nanotech capabilities that aren't extant in existing nanotech but aren't ruled out by the laws of physics, that requires a justification.
4mukashi20d
To clarify, I do think that creating nanobots is solvable. That is one thing: making factories, making designs that kill humans, deploying those nanobots, doing everything without raising any alarms and at risk close to zero, is, in my opinion, impossible. I want to remark that people keep using the argument of nanotechnology totally uncritically, as it were the magical solution that makes an AGI take over the world in two weeks. They are not really considering the gears inside that part of the model
We will be around in 30 years

I would like to point out a potential problem with my own idea, which is that it’s not necessarily clear that cooperating with us will be in the AI’s best interest (over trying to manipulate us in some hard-to-detect manner). For instance, if it “thinks” it can get away with telling us it’s aligned and giving some reasonable sounding (but actually false) proof of its own alignment, that would be better for it than being truly aligned and thereby compromising against its original utility function. On the other hand, if there’s even a small chance we’d be able to detect that sort of deception and shut it down, than as long as we require proof that it won’t “unalign itself” later, it should be rationally forced into cooperating, imo.

We will be around in 30 years

I find myself agreeing with you here, and see this as a potentially significant crux—if true, AGI will be “forced” to cooperate with/deeply influence humans for a significant period of time, which may give us an edge over it (due to having a longer time period where we can turn it off, and thus allowing for “blackmail” of sorts)

9Conor Sullivan19d
I'd like AGIs to have a big red shutdown button that is used/tested regularly, so we know that the AI will shut down and won't try to interfere. I'm not saying this is sufficient to prove that the AI is safe, just that I would sleep better at night knowing that stop-button corrigibility is solved.
5mukashi20d
I am glad to read that, because an AGI that is forced to co-operate is an obvious solution to the alignment problem that is being consistently dismissed by denying that an AGI that does not kill us all is possible at all
AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities

I’m very interested in doing this! Please DM me if you think it might be worth collaborating :)

AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities

Strongly agree with this, said more eloquently than I was able to :)

AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities

The post honestly slightly decreases my confidence in EY’s social assessment capabilities. (I say slightly because of past criticism I’ve had along similar lines). [note here that being good/bad at social assessment is not necessarily correlated to being good/bad at other domains, so like, I don’t see that as taking away from his extremely valid criticism of common “simple solutions” to alignment (which I’ve definitely been guilty of myself). Please don’t read this as denigrating Eliezer’s general intellect or work as a whole.] As you said, the post doesn’... (read more)

AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities

I actually did try to generate a similar list through community discussion (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dSaScvukmCRqey8ug/convince-me-that-humanity-is-as-doomed-by-agi-as-yudkowsky), which while it didn’t end up going in the same exact direction as this document, did have some genuinely really good arguments on the topic, imo. I also don’t feel like many of the points you brought up here were really novel, in that I’ve heard most of this from multiple different sources already (though admittedly, not all in one place).

On a more general note, I don’t be... (read more)

AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities

So how would we know the difference (for the first few years at least)?

If it kills you, then it probably wasn’t aligned. 

The Problem With The Current State of AGI Definitions

Interesting! Do you have any ideas for how to operationalize that view?

Yitz's Shortform

Less (comparatively) intelligent AGI is probably safer, as it will have a greater incentive to coordinate with humans (over killing us all immediately and starting from scratch), which gives us more time to blackmail them.

Six Dimensions of Operational Adequacy in AGI Projects

Awesome! Looking forward to seeing what y'all come out with :)

Six Dimensions of Operational Adequacy in AGI Projects
Yitz1moΩ723

May I ask why you guys decided to publish this now in particular? Totally fine if you can’t answer that question, of course.

It's been high on some MIRI staff's "list of things we want to release" over the years, but we repeatedly failed to make a revised/rewritten version of the draft we were happy with. So I proposed that we release a relatively unedited version of Eliezer's original draft, and Eliezer said he was okay with that (provided we sprinkle the "Reminder:  This is a 2017 document" notes throughout).

We're generally making a push to share a lot of our models (expect more posts soon-ish), because we're less confident about what the best object-level path is to ensu... (read more)

What is Going On With CFAR?

I honestly don't really get why the "telos committee" is an overall good idea (though there may be some value in experimenting with that sort of thing)—intuitively, a large portion of extremely valuable projects are going to be boring, and the sort of thing that people are going to feel "burnt out" on a large portion of the time. Shutting down projects that don't feel like saving the world probably doesn't select well for projects that are maximilly effective. Might just be misunderstanding what you mean here, of course.

What is Going On With CFAR?

If this is the case, it would be really nice to have confirmation from someone working there.

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