It just a flashmob. A flashmob in Macy's was so precovid - now we have flashmobs on capital markets: https://zby.medium.com/gamestop-capitol-hill-riots-flashmobs-everywhere-3c1df6333328
Also GME should just raise capital and sell enough shares to get the price more reasonable. SEC should not just allow that - but encourage them.
See also Ben Thompson on social networking 2.0: https://stratechery.com/2020/social-networking-2-0/
I would presume that many people here had bought stuff at Silk Way - it is puzzling that the discourse about antigen tests is still about the official approval and not about how you can import reliable tests from abroad. For my personal use I found online pharmacy in Germany that sends to Poland and does not check if I am really a doctor - but they probably don't send to US, so you need to find your own ways.
Regarding Belgium - have a look at Czech Republic too.
I don't know much how the situation is in African countries, Middle East, India or Latin America, but there are two contrasting examples - European culture countries (including USA, Canada) that struggle with the pandemic and East Asian countries that managed to get it under control. There are also Western countries that are doing well - like Iceland or New Zealand and Australia - which is kind of in between - I think they are just remote enough. The main factor seems to be how disciplined the population is. There are many measures that limit the R and in... (read more)
There is also the universal Girardian mimetic failure mode. It is a spiral of ever increasing desire for things and status, where we want things because someone other wants it. I once wrote an essay on that in the context of internet discussions: https://blog.p2pfoundation.net/online-conflict-in-the-light-of-mimetic-theory/2009/11/25
Another failure mode: the replication crisis in science - where only new and surprising theses are being published, but there is no mechanism for reinforcing existing theories. This also happens in social media - people al
The interesting tidbit is WHO calling CDC and having their statements retracted. How come? What authority has WHO over CDC? Why it needs to be everywhere the same? https://www.overcomingbias.com/2020/09/the-world-forager-elite.html
Didn't Trump withdrew US from WHO?
I think the road to a new wave of 'social networking' and 'tagging' systems is via better local capture of (marginal) knowledge - that is systems that facilitate adding notes and tags to online content and then searching it. We can do it manually - but it works only for stuff that we quickly recognize as important, it is much less efficient for stuff that grows on us slowly with marginal steps. It is kind of strange that after 25 years of the web bookmarks management is still so hard. After this is finally fixed - with systems like: https://git... (read more)
One more random thought. Exposing yourself for ideas from someone is much less risk than exposing yourself materially to him. But our trust has evolved for material interactions and there used to be an overkill of it for information interactions.
The replication crisis of science is a good example of how current way of 'horizontal spread mode of good things' reaches its limits and needs a correction mechanism. The question is if the correction mechanism can spread horizontally or if it can only come vertically.
If we can understand it - that is simulate it in our heads and see the outcomes - then we probably can convince others about it and it can spread horizontally.
It might be that the dichotomy of horizontal and vertical is too limited - ideas spread in bubbles.
https://www.gwern.net/Littlewood ... (read more)
Ad. "Information is almost as good as iteration." - speculative
There is a correlation between intelligence and openness - and the causal link is that people with intelligence can do simulations of others and predict their behaviour better so evolution packs these two traits together.
Some more random thoughts.
What is a social network? It is something that gathers messages from a network and presents them as a feed - is that a good definition? It also needs to let the users generate the messages.
What would be the messages? Links with tags, comments, photos, video, ...
In a way a social network is a generalization of:
Cool - I really want to use it :)
My own pet idea is to let users have full control over their feed algorithm with a scripting language or something plus a generic Publish Subscribe infrastructure. But your web of trust could be pretty close in all the use cases that I imagine.
Just to get things rolling - what business model do you see for it?
What would be a proof of concept for it? A bare bones system - what would it have to have so that we could test it?
And what do you mean by a 'browser app'?
OK, but do you have a more through comparison between PCR and RT-LAMP or is it just based on your intuitions?
And there are even more methods: https://www.cebm.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/CurrentCOVIDTests_descriptions-FINAL.pdf
I have gathered some links in: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CSKsPwMjn2JxYroNA/how-likely-is-the-covid-19-apocalyptic-scenario?commentId=X554vNDwzpCyZQeFP -but I guess it is dated now. It is strange that we don't have stats about that - it is only one step more difficult than the CFR stats.
"money printing = devaluation -> inflation" - that is kind of obvious - I would start with asking what are the arguments against it. In 2008 it did not work that way - so it looks kind of disproved, but times are changing. The Ray Dalio recent blog posts suggest that the USD global reserve status might be at the end of its cycle. Another thing is that the US government debt it increasing and at some day it will reach one of two reinforcing thresholds: one where investors would start seeing it as dangerous (and demand higher rates) and the other where se
Someone should forward this to Mark Zuckerberg - Facebook can do a lot of good without becoming the arbiter of truth.
(Just in case the reference is lost when this is read in the future: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/may/28/zuckerberg-facebook-police-online-speech-trump)
The same result bigger n: https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/05/22/hydroxychloroquine-enough-already
I would like to discuss #2 - there are some reports about that:
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/young-covid-positive-redditors-describe-agony-symptoms-lasting-nearly-two-months-after - these leads to Reddit patient reports, I don't use Reddit that much and I don't know how reliable they are, are those even from real people?
It is consistent with the 'silent hypoxia' story - that the virus destroys the lungs in a way that makes them very inefficient it blood oxygenation - but initially still good at expelling CO2. We don't feel low ... (read more)
It is also a hope in type 1 diabetes: https://www.google.com/search?q=bcg+diabetes - this is really unexpected stuff.
Hmm - the charts show daily changes in proportion to the previous day - this is not exactly second derivative. For example the function x*x has a constant second derivative - but it would slope down on such a chart.
A meta question - can we find areas with mismatched incentives (à la https://equilibriabook.com/ ), and biases, where the applying the rational thinking methodology would have high leverage? What can LessWrong do better than official science?
This is interesting subject - can we do here better than official science? As I understand the situation now there are still no good trials on this. There is one Italian trial that was heavily criticized: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22662103 , and one Chinese that has not been published yet: http://www.chictr.org.cn/showprojen.aspx?proj=48880 - and some older ones for SARS https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15351731?dopt=Abstract
But maybe soon we'll have better data: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/who-launches-global-megatrial-four-... (read more)
Favipiravir - I have not seen this yet here, but it looks actually even more promising than chloroquine: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Favipiravir
Reduction from 11 to 4 median days of treatment.
The best article for an interested lay person I have seen is this The Economist article: https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/03/12/understanding-sars-cov-2-and-the-drugs-that-might-lessen-its-power
Here is an outline: https://outline.com/Ma9nV7
How about using UV lamps and ozone in bathroom to sanitize the deliveries? This might be particularly useful for groceries.
It worked in 1918: https://qz.com/1816060/a-chart-of-the-1918-spanish-flu-shows-why-social-distancing-works/
It would be useful to compare it to the previous pandemic possibilities: SARS, swine flu, avian flu.
People correctly try to reason by analogy - but it is important to find the differences.
How does that relate to all what was said (and sang) about 'rat race'?
through giving me access to good ideas of the "invest in index funds" level
for me the point is about getting *consistently* good ideas, getting reliable ideas where applying scientific method is too hard. It is much less about self-improvement as it is about community improvement in the face of more and more connected (and thus weird) world. Rationality is epistemology for the internet era.
A slightly broader theory: being too cooperative makes live easy for the non cooperators (the state in the Soviet Union case, but it also works in cases when people fall for some stupid maniulations). There must be many equilibria and some cultures stay at some middle level, they don't aim at the most productive ones out of fear not to be pushed into the least productive.
Sounds like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Floating_signifier