Running Lightcone Infrastructure, which runs LessWrong. You can reach me at habryka@lesswrong.com. I have signed no contracts or agreements whose existence I cannot mention.
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That will push P(doom) lower because most frames from most disciplines, and most styles of reasoning, don't predict doom.
I don't really buy this statement. Most frames, from most disciplines, and most styles of reasoning, do not make clear predictions about what will happen to humanity in the long-run future. A very few do, but the vast majority are silent on this issue. Silence is not anything like "50%".
Most frames, from most disciplines, and most styles of reasoning, don't predict sparks when you put metal in a microwave. This doesn't mean I don't know what happens when you put metal in a microwave. You need to at the very least limit yourself to applicable frames, and there are very few applicable frames for predicting humanity's long-term future.
(It seems to me that you didn't read Eliezer's comment response to this, which also aligns with my model. Finding any overlap between abstractions is extremely far from showing that the abstractions relevant to controlling or aligning AI systems will match)
Thank you!
And yeah, agree that it should respect the user's pinned post. Seems like it should be an easy change.
Hello and welcome! I also found all of this stuff via HPMoR many years ago. Hope you have a good time commenting more!
Yeah, we are very likely to port this over. We've just been busy with LessOnline and Manifest and so haven't gotten around to it.
Yeah, I do think that's what Twitter tends to do. Which is helpful as someone casually engaged with things, but it's not a good venue for anyone who wants to actually engage with a long-standing conversation.
You're welcome! Sorry for the variance in the karma system. It does take quite a while for things to settle.
The LW survey is something that has broad buy-in. In-general promising to upvote others distorts the upvote signal (since like, people could very easily manufacture lots of karma by just upvoting each others), so there is a prior against this kind of stuff that sometimes can be overcome.
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Alas, seems like a mistake. My advice is at least to somehow divest away from the Anthropic equity, which I expect will have a large effect on your cognition one way or another.