Cleo Nardo

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tbh, Lewis's account of counterfactual is a bit defective, compared with (e.g.) Pearl's

Suppose Alice and Bob throw a rock at a fragile window, Alice's rock hits the window first, smashing it.

Then the following seems reasonable:

  1. Alice throwing the rock caused the window to smash. True.
  2. Were Alice ot throw the rock, then the window would've smashed. True.
  3. Were Alice not to throw the rock, then the window would've not smashed. False.
  4. By (3), the window smashing does not causally depend on Alice throwing the rock.

Edit: Wait, I see what you mean. Fixed definition.

For Lewis,  for all . In other words, the counterfactual proposition "were  to occur then  would've occurred" is necessarily true if  is necessarily false. For example, Lewis thinks "were 1+1=3, then Elizabeth I would've married" is true. This means that  may be empty for all neighbourhoods , yet  is nonetheless true at .

Source: David Lewis (1973), Counterfactuals. Link: https://perso.uclouvain.be/peter.verdee/counterfactuals/lewis.pdf

Otherwise your later example doesn't make sense.

Elaborate?

Answer by Cleo Nardo170

 If there's a causal chain from c to d to e, then d causally depends on c, and e causally depends on d, so if c were to not occur, d would not occur, and if d were to not occur, e would not occur

 

On Lewis's account of counterfactuals, this isn't true, i.e. causal dependence is non-transitive. Hence, he defines causation as the transitive closure of causal dependence.

Lewis' semantics

Let  be a set of worlds. A proposition is characterised by the subset  of worlds in which the proposition is true.

Moreover, assume each world  induces an ordering  over worlds, where  means that world  is closer to  than . Informally, if the actual world is , then  is a smaller deviation than . We assume , i.e. no world is closer to the actual world than the actual world.

For each , a "neighbourhood" around  is a downwards-closed set of the preorder . That is, a neighbourhood around  is some set  such that  and for all  and , if  then . Intuitively, if a neighbourhood around  contains some world  then it contains all worlds closer to than . Let  denote the neighbourhoods of .

Negation

Let  denote the proposition " is not true". This is defined by the complement subset 

Counterfactuals

We can define counterfactuals as follows. Given two propositions  and , let  denote the proposition "were  to happen then  would've happened". If we consider  as subsets, then we define  as the subset . That's a mouthful, but basically,  is true at some world  if

(1) " is possible" is globally false, i.e. 

(2) or " is possible and  is necessary" is locally true, i.e. true in some neighbourhood .

Intuitively, to check whether the proposition "were  to occur then  would've occurred" is true at , we must search successively larger neighbourhoods around  until we find a neighbourhood containing an -world, and then check that all -worlds are -worlds in that neighbourhood. If we don't find any -worlds, then we also count that as success.

Causal dependence

Let  denote the proposition " causally depends on ". This is defined as the subset  

Nontransitivity of causal dependence

We can see that  is not a transitive relation. Imagine  with the ordering  given by . Then  and  but not .

Informal counterexample

Imagine I'm in a casino, I have million-to-one odds of winning small and billion-to-one odds of winning big.

  1. Winning something causally depends on winning big:
    1. Were I to win big, then I would've won something. (Trivial.)
    2. Were I to not win big, then I would've not won something. (Because winning nothing is more likely than winning small.)
  2. Winning small causally depends on winning something:
    1. Were I win something, then I would've won small. (Because winning small is more likely than winning big.)
    2. Were I to not win something, then I would've not won small. (Trivial.)
  3. Winning small doesn't causally depend on winning big:
    1. Were I to win big, then I would've won small. (WRONG.)
    2. Were I to not win big, then I would've not won small. (Because winning nothing is more likely than winning small.)

https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/1840104/regarding-the-injectivity-of-units-of-monads-on-mathbfset

note that there are only two exceptions to the claim “the unit of a monad is componentwise injective”. this means (except these two weird exceptions), that the singleton collections  and  are always distinct for . hence, , the set of collections over , always “contains” the underlying set . by “contains” i mean there is a canonical injection , i.e. in the same way the real numbers contains the rational .

in particular, i think this should settle the worry that “there should be more collections than singleton elements”. is that your worry?

sorry i’m not getting this whoops monad. can you spell out the details, or pick a more standard example to illustrate your point?

i think “every monad formalises a different notion of collection” is a bit strong. for example, the free vector space monad  (see section 3.2) — is  a collection of the elements, for some notion of collection? 

is every element of a free algebraic structure a “collection” of the generators? would you hear someone say that a quantum state is a collection of eigenstates? at a stretch maybe.

would be keen to hear your thoughts & thanks for the pointer to Lewis :)

if a lab has 100 million AI employs and 1000 human employees then you only need one human employee to spend 1% of their allotted AI headcount on your pet project and you’ll have 1000 AI employees

seems correct, thanks!

Why do decision-theorists say "pre-commitment" rather than "commitment"?

e.g. "The agent pre-commits to 1 boxing" vs "The agent commits to 1 boxing".

Is this just a lesswrong thing?

https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/pre-commitment

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