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Forecasting & Prediction

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Applied to How do you decide to phrase predictions you ask of others? (and how do you make your own?) by CstineSublime 3d ago

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Applied to Predicting AI Releases Through Side Channels by Reworr R 5d ago

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Applied to Introducing Squiggle AI by ozziegooen 9d ago

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Applied to Grading my 2024 AI predictions by Nikola Jurkovic 11d ago

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Applied to No, the Polymarket price does not mean we can immediately conclude what the probability of a bird flu pandemic is. We also need to know the interest rate! by Christopher King 15d ago

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Applied to Forecast 2025 With Vox's Future Perfect Team — $2,500 Prize Pool by RobertM 22d ago

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Applied to The Technist Reformation: A Discussion with o1 About The Coming Economic Event Horizon by Raemon 1mo ago

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Applied to Forecast With GiveWell by Raemon 1mo ago

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Applied to Mathematical Futurology: From Pseudoscience to Rigorous Framework by Wenitte Apiou 1mo ago

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Applied to "Map of AI Futures" - An interactive flowchart by swante 2mo ago

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Applied to Will Orion/Gemini 2/Llama-4 outperform o1 by LuigiPagani 2mo ago

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Applied to Seven lessons I didn't learn from election day by Rasool 2mo ago

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Applied to Markets Are Information - Beating the Sportsbooks at Their Own Game by JJXW 2mo ago

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Applied to How Likely Are Various Precursors of Existential Risk? by NunoSempere 3mo ago

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Applied to Concrete benefits of making predictions by Jonny Spicer 3mo ago

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Applied to The Great Bootstrap by KristianRonn 3mo ago

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Applied to Launching Adjacent News by Lucas Kohorst 3mo ago

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Applied to Can AI Outpredict Humans? Results From Metaculus's Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark by Raemon 3mo ago

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Applied to Safe Predictive Agents with Joint Scoring Rules by ProgramCrafter 3mo ago