I'm probably missing something simple, but what is 356? I was expecting a probability or a percent, but that number is neither.

Does anyone know if it's typically the case that people under gag orders about their NDAs can talk to other people who they know signed the same NDAs? That is, if a bunch of people quit a company and all have signed self-silencing NDAs, are they normally allowed to talk to each other about why they quit and commiserate about the costs of their silence?

Preface: I think this comment will be pretty unpopular here.

I think this is a very unhelpful frame for any discussion (especially so the more high-stakes it is) for the reasons that SlateStarCodex outlines in Against Bravery Debates, and I think your comment would be better with this removed.

Added: I appreciate the edit :)

Yep! My guess is I will send one out to people who bought tickets next week, along with various spreadsheets for signing up to activities with (e.g. giving a lightning talk).

(I personally strongly prefer slack for a bunch of UI reasons including threading and especially because I always find the conversational culture on discord disorienting, though I know manifest has a community discord so it might be worth using discord.)

Launched a few days ago, the plan is:

• Kids tickets are $50
• There's daycare purchasable on-site from 10am to 7pm, for like $10/hour if you book ahead of time or $30/hour if you use it on-the-day
• If you want connection to a nanny for outside of those hours we have a service that can help with that at $45/hour.

Happy to get feedback on this, still figuring out what exactly helps parents and how to set it up right.

[Added April 28th: In case someone reads my comment without this context: David has made a number of worthwhile contributions to discussions of biological existential risks (e.g. 1, 2, 3) as well as worked professionally in this area and his contributions on this topic are quite often well-worth engaging with. Here I just intended to add that in my opinion early on in the covid pandemic he messed up pretty badly in one or two critical discussions around mask effectiveness and censoring criticism of the CDC. Perhaps that's not saying much because the base rate for relevant experts dealing with Covid is also that they were very off-the-mark. Furthermore David's June 2020 post-mortem of his mistakes was a good public service even while I don't agree with his self-assessment in all cases. Overall I think his arguments are often well-worth engaging with.]

I'm not in touch with the ground truth in this case, but for those reading along without knowing the context, I'll mention that it wouldn't be the first time that David has misrepresented what people in the Effective Altruism Biorisk professional network believe^[1]. 

(I will mention that David later apologized for handling that situation poorly and wasting people's time^[2], which I think reflects positively on him.)

1. ^{^}

   See Habryka's response to Davidmanheim's comment here from March 7th 2020, such as this quote.

   Overall, my sense is that you made a prediction that people in biorisk would consider this post an infohazard that had to be prevented from spreading (you also reported this post to the admins, saying that we should "talk to someone who works in biorisk at at FHI, Openphil, etc. to confirm that this is a really bad idea").

   We have now done so, and in this case others did not share your assessment (and I expect most other experts would give broadly the same response).

2. ^{^}

   See David's own June 25th reply to the same comment.

The first sounds like the sort of thing that turns out to be surprisingly useful (nobody ever gives me health advice). Mm, maybe folks can agree-react to this sentence if they too want to go to such a session?

Nice, just had a good call with Alkjash, who is coming and will be preparing 2 layman-level math talks about questions he's been thinking about.

Other ideas we chatted about having at LessOnline include maybe having some discussions about doing research inside and outside of academia, and also about learning from GlowFic writers how to write well collaboratively. (Let me know if you'd be interested in either of these!)

I think on-site housing is pretty scarce, though we're going to make more high-density rooms in response to demand for that. Tickets aren't scarce, our venue could fit like a 700 person event, so I don't expect to hit the limits.

Still working on setting it up, once I have the details I'll announce them (e.g. pricing and whatnot).

I'm aiming to have childcare available in some form for the full 9-day LessOnline-to-Summer-Camp-to-Manifest period. I'm excited for folks to come with their full families.