[set 200 years after a positive singularity at a Storyteller's convention]

If We Win Then...

My friends, my friends, good news I say
The anniversary’s today
A challenge faced, a future won
When almost came our world undone

We thought for years, with hopeful hearts
Past every one of the false starts
We found a way to make aligned
With us, the seed of wondrous mind

They say at first our child-god grew
It learned and spread and sought anew
To build itself both vast and true
For so much work there was to do

Once it had learned enough to act
With the desired care and tact
It sent a call to all the people
On this fair Earth, both poor and regal

To let them know that it was here
And nevermore need they to fear
Not every wish was it to grant
For higher values might supplant

But it would help in many ways:
Technologies it built and raised
The smallest bots it could design
Made more and more in ways benign

And as they multiplied untold
It planned ahead, a move so bold
One planet and 6 hours of sun
Eternity it was to run

Countless probes to void disperse
Seed far reaches of universe
With thriving life, and beauty's play
Through endless night to endless day

Now back on Earth the plan continues
Of course, we shared with it our values
So it could learn from everyone
What to create, what we want done

We chose, at first, to end the worst
Diseases, War, Starvation, Thirst
And climate change and fusion bomb
And once these things it did transform

We thought upon what we hold dear
And settled our most ancient fear
No more would any lives be stolen
Nor minds themselves forever broken

Now back to those far speeding probes
What should we make be their payloads?
Well, we are still considering
What to send them; that is our thing. 

The sacred task of many aeons
What kinds of joy will fill the heavens?
And now we are at story's end
So come, be us, and let's ascend

The best physio I've met did steps which were almost exactly the same as facilitating Focusing.

Suggest the following for independent reading: https://linktr.ee/modelsofmind, especially the first one and the multiagent models of mind sequence.

Maybe try from the Psychat-list from ACX: https://psychiatlist.astralcodexten.com/

(feel free to not go any deeper, appreciate you having engaged as much as you have!)

1. Yup, was just saying my first-pass guess would have been a less large labour->progress penalty. I do defer here fairly thoroughly.

The right way to think about 1.05x vs. 1.2x is not a 75% reduction, but instead what is the exponent for which 1.05^n=1.2

hmm, seems true if you're expecting the people to not have applied a correction already, but less true if they are already making a correction and you're estimating how wrong their correction is?

And yup, agree with that preregistration on all counts.

Clarification:

1. Change to the form to ask about without AI assistence?
2. Change to the website to refer to "AI provides the following speedups from a baseline of 2022/3 AI:"? (I don't have write access)

(assuming 1 for now, will revert if incorrect)

Try @Kaj_Sotala or another therapist / coach from the community. It's easier when you don't have to doompill your psychological support person. 

I think this risks people underappreciating how much progress is being sped up, my naive read of the UI was the numbers were based on "no AI" and I'd bet most readers would think the same at a glance. Changing the text from "AI provides the following speedups:" to "AI provides the following speedups from a baseline of 2022/3 AI:" would resolve this (I would guess common) misreading.

Alright, my first pass guess would have been algorithmic progress seems like the kind of thing that eats a much smaller penalty than most forms org-level progress, not none but not a 75% reduction, and not likely more than a 50% reduction, but you guys have the track record.

Cool, added a nudge to the last question.

Okay, switched. I'm curious about why you didn't set the baseline to "no AI help", especially if you expect pre-2024 AI to be mostly useless, as that seems like a cleaner comparison than asking people to remember how good old AIs were?