Prerequisites This post requires some knowledge of Bayesian and Frequentist statistics, as well as probability. It is intended to explain one of the more advanced concepts in statistical theory--Bayesian non-consistency--to non-statisticians, and although the level required is much less than would be required to read some of the original papers...
The LW community seems to assume, by default, that "unbounded, linear utility functions are reasonable." That is, if you value the existence of 1 swan at 1.5 utilons, then 10 swans should be worth 15, etc. Yudkowsky in his post on scope insensitivity argues that nonlinearity of personal utility functions...
I wonder if anyone has thought about setting up an online community dedicated to peer-to-peer tutoring. The idea is that if I want to learn "Differential Geometry" and know "Python programming", and you want to learn "Python programming" and know "Differential geometry," then we can agree to tutor each other...
The Fermi Paradox leads us to conclude that either A) intelligent life is extremely improbable, B) intelligent life very rarely grows to a higher-level civilization, or C) that higher-level civilizations are common, but are not easy to spot. But each of these explanations are hard to believe. It is hard...
Speculation is important for forecasting; it's also fun. Speculation is usually conveyed in two forms: in the form of an argument, or encapsulated in fiction; each has their advantages, but both tend to be time-consuming. Presenting speculation in the form of an argument involves researching relevant background and formulating logical...
As seen in other threads, people disagree on whether CEV exists, and if it does, what it might turn out to be. It would be nice to try to categorize common speculations about CEV. 1a. CEV doesn't exist, because human preferences are too divergent 1b. CEV doesn't even exist for...
LW is one of the few informal places which take existential risk seriously. Researchers can post here to describe proposed or ongoing research projects, seeking consultation on possible X-risk consequences of their work. Commenters should write their posts with the understanding that many researchers prioritize interest first and existential risk/social...