I've been reading Toby Ord's recent sequence on AI scaling a bit. General notes come first, then my thoughts. Notes * The Scaling Paradox basically argues that the scaling laws are actually pretty bad and mean progress will hit a wall fairly quickly unless the next gen or two of...
Half a year or so ago I stumbled across Eugene Wigner's 1960's article "The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Mathematics in the Natural Sciences". It asks a fairly simple question. Why does mathematics generalize so well to the real world? Even in cases where the relevant math was discovered (created?) hundreds of...
> Context: Causal Decision Theory (CDT) = Choose the action that cause the best expected outcome Evidential Decision Theory (EDT) = Choose the action that is the best evidence of best expected outcome In Does Dissolving Newcomb's Paradox Matter I wrote a bit about decision theory. Specifically I mentioned the...
> Context: Newcomb's Paradox is a problem in decision theory. Omega swoops in and places two boxes in front of you. One is transparent and contains $1'000. One is opaque and contains either $1'000'000 if Omega thinks you'll only take one box or $0 if Omega thinks you'll take two...
It’s early. 0100. I’ve just come home from walking a guest at my latest party to her bus stop. Cleaned up a bit. Now I’m sitting here. A few interesting topics came up For a while I talked to a the smartest man in St Vincent, the philosophy PHD, hedge...
Let’s say you want to find out roughly how much of a country’s economy is controlled by the state vs the free market. How would you do so? My first instinct would be to look at state spending as a % of GDP, or maybe taxation as a % of...
The multiplier is how much econ activity results from a unit of government spending. E.g: GDP change = M * G. Most Kenysians and modern economists argue that under some macro conditions X$ of government spending can produce more or less than X$ of GDP/economic value. Specifically in recessions. This...