This post is based on my introduction talk at EAGxBerlin 2022. It is intended for policy researchers who want to extend their tool kit with computational tools. I show how we can support decision-making with simulation models of socio-technical systems while embracing uncertainties in a systematic manner. The technical field of decision-making under deep uncertainty offers a wide range of methods to account for various parametric and structural uncertainties while identifying robust policies where we want to optimize for multiple objectives simultaneously for particularly vulnerable scenarios.

Summary

Real-world political decision-making problems are complex, with disputed knowledge, differing problem perceptions, opposing stakeholders, and interactions between framing the problem and problem-solving.
Modeling can help policy-makers to navigate these complexities.
Traditional modeling is ill-suited for this purpose.
Systems modeling is a better fit (e.g., agent-based models).
Deep uncertainty is more common than one might think.
Deep uncertainty makes expected-utility reasoning virtually useless.
Decision-Making under Deep Uncertainty is a framework that can build upon systems modeling and overcome deep uncertainties.
Explorative modeling > predictive modeling.
Value diversity (aka multiple objectives) > single objectives.
Focus on finding vulnerable scenarios and robust policy solutions.
Good fit with the mitigation of GCRs, X-risks, and S-risks.

Complexity

Complexity science is an interdisciplinary field that seeks to understand complex systems and the emergent behaviors that arise from the interactions of their components. Complexity is often an obstacle to decision-making. So, we need to address it.

Ant Colonies

Ant colonies are a great example of how complex systems can emerge from simple individual behaviors. Ants follow very simplistic rules, such as depositing food, following pheromone trails, and communicating with each other through chemical signals. However, the collective behavior of the colony is highly sophisticated, with complex networks of pheromone trails guiding the movement of the entire colony toward food sources and the construction of intricate structures such as nests and tunnels. The behavior of the colony is also highly adaptive, with the ability to respond to changes in the environment, such as changes in the availability of...

Posts

Wikitag Contributions

Comments