I agree with this on timescales of around 1,000,000 years or so, but disagree with the colloquial interpretation that this is something that would be useful in mitigating the x-risks we currently face.
Otherwise, I think this does seem like the kind of thing you would do to mitigate a broad class of risks. Namely, those that arise on Earth and don't lend themselves to interplanetary travel (e.g. pandemics, nukes, and some of the unknown unknowns).
Nathan Bouscal:Note that I haven't heard significant disagreement about a colony being useless-ish against AI x-risk. The argument is that it helps with (almost) every other x-risk.
Robert Wiblin:Even then the disagreement isn't that a Mars colony couldn't help, it's that you can get something similarly valuable on Earth for a fraction of the price and difficulty.
I agree with this on timescales of around 1,000,000 years or so, but disagree with the colloquial interpretation that this is something that would be useful in mitigating the x-risks we currently face.
That was a quick estimate of the timescale where mitigating astronomical black swans becomes worth doing.
How do you think it plays out in one million years?
I agree that For mitigating AI x-risk, an off-Earth colony would be about as useful as a warm scarf.
Otherwise, I think this does seem like the kind of thing you would do to mitigate a broad class of risks. Namely, those that arise on Earth and don't lend themselves to interplanetary travel (e.g. pandemics, nukes, and some of the unknown unknowns).
Alexei What are some of the ones (besides AI x-risk) that you think are not?
I feel like Paul Crowley's version is basically the same as this one.
And yes, I agree that there are some x-risks (like global warming) that are helped by a colony, but most aren't.
From the FB thread:
Nathan Bouscal: Note that I haven't heard significant disagreement about a colony being useless-ish against AI x-risk. The argument is that it helps with (almost) every other x-risk.
Robert Wiblin: Even then the disagreement isn't that a Mars colony couldn't help, it's that you can get something similarly valuable on Earth for a fraction of the price and difficulty.
Paul Crowley: The proper disagreement to measure is something like "A permanent, self-sustaining off-Earth colony would be a much more effective mitigation of x-risk than even an equally well funded system of disaster shelters on Earth."