LinkSummaryDate AddedLast UpdatedName / Opening Sentence
4Supply chains meant to serve businesses things like toilet paper and food can't immediately convert to serving consumers, leading to shortages as consumers stay homeSupply chains meant to serve businesses things like toilet paper and food can't immediately convert to serving consumers, leading to shortages as consumers stay home(EV)Apr 4Apr 2
What Everyone’s Getting Wrong About the Toilet Paper Shortage
Found via twitter.com
4Many first world farming operations rely on cheap imported labor, which is currently blocked by travel and immigration restrictions, potentially leading to a tremendous loss of food.Many first world farming operations rely on cheap imported labor, which is currently blocked by travel and immigration restrictions, potentially leading to a tremendous loss of food.(EV)Mar 31Mar 31
Migrant Farmworkers Whose Harvests Feed Europe are Blocked at Borders
4
ssingh.ucdavis.edu Academic (pre-print)
Based on 9 pandemics dating from the 1300s, economists calculate that large plagues reduce interest rates in European countries by 4-10% (points?) and raised wages by 5-10%
Based on 9 pandemics dating from the 1300s, economists calculate that large plagues reduce interest rates in European countries by 4-10% (points?) and raised wages by 5-10% (EV): A little confused but I think they're using percentage points for interest rates and regular percentages for wagesMar 31Mar 1
Longer-run economic consequences of pandemics?
3
washingtonpost.com Citizen Model
Workers who lose jobs during a recession can face lifelong depression of wages. Megan McArdle predicts that won't happen, at least not as bad as it did in 2008, because this is caused by an actual problem and not the economy misfiring.
Workers who lose jobs during a recession can face lifelong depression of wages. Megan McArdle predicts that won't happen, at least not as bad as it did in 2008, because this is caused by an actual problem and not the economy misfiring.(EV): I'm not sure this follows. She implies being laid off is less of a signal of productivity than usual, but I don't see why that should be true.Mar 31Mar 24
Are young people doomed to a repeat of the Great Recession?
3The US had 3.3 million unemployment insurance claims last weekThe US had 3.3 million unemployment insurance claims last week(EV) This brings us to 5.5%, which used to be considered very good. Obviously the trend is awful but I wish they were more accurate about what constitutes good employment percentageMar 28Mar 26
A record 3.3 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits as the coronavirus slams economy
3
bfi.uchicago.edu Academic (pre-print)
Series of short posts, backed by working papers, of key economics facts about C19, like "What % of workers can WFH?" or "What is the cost of quarantine?"
Series of short posts, backed by working papers, of key economics facts about C19, like "What % of workers can WFH?" or "What is the cost of quarantine?"(EV)Mar 28Mar 27
Key Economic Facts About COVID-19
3Believes C19 death rates are very low, based on Diamond Princess and Italy dataBelieves C19 death rates are very low, based on Diamond Princess and Italy data(EV): I disagree with his assumptions. In particular, even if you assume *everyone* on Diamond Princess caught C19, he's ignoring the people who needed medical intervention.Mar 26Mar 21
The Corona Dilemma.
3
getguesstimate.com Citizen Model
A guesstimate model calculating the benefit of quarantine, business as usual, or intermediate. Estimate median: 10s of thousands of USD
A guesstimate model calculating the benefit of quarantine, business as usual, or intermediate. Estimate median: 10s of thousands of USD(EV) He's looking for help improving the modelMar 26Mar 25
Coronavirus isolation cost/benefit
Found via twitter.com
3Plea to consider both the cost in lives of doing nothing and of gutting the economy, and spend more money to get things fixed fasterPlea to consider both the cost in lives of doing nothing and of gutting the economy, and spend more money to get things fixed faster(EV)Mar 25Mar 22
Covid-19: Measuring the Urgency to Act
Found via facebook.com
3LW attemts to predict what the effects of a short or long quarantine will beLW attemts to predict what the effects of a short or long quarantine will be(EV)Mar 24Mar 24
What will the economic effects of a 3 week quarantine be? 3 months?
3
clubtroppo.com.au Citizen Model
Two approaches to calculating how much the money lost from the economy due to shutdowns could have saved lives
Two approaches to calculating how much the money lost from the economy due to shutdowns could have saved lives(EV) Starts with the current death count, no projected uncontrolled death count, which is a terrible sign. Leaves out lives saved for non-C19 reasons from shut downs (via e.g. polllution and reduced driving)Mar 22Mar 19
Has the coronavirus panic cost us at least 10 million lives already?
Found via facebook.com
3
stlouisfed.org Government
Mortality statistics, anecdotes-via-news of economic effects, and aggregated economics data
Mortality statistics, anecdotes-via-news of economic effects, and aggregated economics dataMar 20Nov 1
Economic Effects of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic
2Econ paper describing the effects of subsidizing employers keeping non-working employees on payrollEcon paper describing the effects of subsidizing employers keeping non-working employees on payroll(EV)Apr 1
Subsidizing Labor Hoarding in Recessions: The Employment & Welfare Effects of Short Time Work
2
quantgov.org NGO
State-by-state table of quarantine measures
State-by-state table of quarantine measures(EV)Mar 28???
State Quarantine Regulations
2
nber.org Academic (pre-print)
Economist uses basic SIR and utility function equations to caclulate the optimimum level of containment (in abstract units)
Economist uses basic SIR and utility function equations to caclulate the optimimum level of containment (in abstract units)(EV): Useful demonstration but too abstract to really base action onMar 26Mar ??, 2020
THE MACROECONOMICS OF EPIDEMICS
2
arguablywrong.home.blog Citizen Model
Verbal model of costs of various controls
Verbal model of costs of various controlsMar 26Mar 12
Epidemiological modeling – costs of controls
1Economist calculates the cost/value of a life and how many life-years have been lost due to what he describes as the reaction to CV but is actually a drop in the stock marketEconomist calculates the cost/value of a life and how many life-years have been lost due to what he describes as the reaction to CV but is actually a drop in the stock market(EV): Neither of his models seems very good to me, nor do I think stock market drop is a good way to measure economic impactMar 26Mar 18
Has the coronavirus panic cost us at least 10 million lives already?
1Believes the death rate is really low and the stock market drop represents real loss.Believes the death rate is really low and the stock market drop represents real loss.(EV): Still don't believe stock market drop is a good measure of lost valueMar 26Mar 22
Collateral Damage