I'd like to talk about social host liability. If, as you read that term, you parsed it as 'social' as in social media, 'host' as in webhost, and 'liability' as in if a social media webhost does something negligent that causes harm to come to third parties that they should be held legally liable... then you don't know what social host liability is. You do, however, have an intuitive grasp of the point I'd like to make in this article.
Social host liability means that if you are serving alcohol at a party, and you serve one of your guests to a point of obvious intoxication, and that guest leaves and gets in a car accident or otherwise hurts someone where the proximate cause is determined to be...
MIRI is moving (with high probability)!
We haven’t finalized a location yet, but there’s a good chance we’ll make our decision in the next six weeks. I want to solicit:
I’m also interested in a more general location-optimizing discussion. What are your general thoughts on where you’d like to live, and have they changed any since the hub conversations Claire Wang began in September and November? If a new rationality community hub sprang up at any of these locations, would you be tempted to join? Is there a different place you’d prefer (either personally, or for the community)?
Anything from 'statements of personal preferences' to 'models of how the rationality community might make humanity's future much...
The Biden administration’s latest strategy for the pandemic is to suspend the vaccine patents without compensation. Our life expectancies are lower than they were last week.
It’s a shame. I like the idea of rewarding those who do amazing things for myself and for the world. I like people out there knowing that if they produce amazing things for myself and for the world, they would get rewarded for them. I like the idea of not dying for as long as possible thanks to future developments in medical science. I like being a nation of laws, where the executive doesn’t just take stuff when he feels like it. And I’d like, when nice things are taken away and we mortgage our future, to at least get something out...
Scott Alexander is out with his (late) 2021 predictions. You know what that means. It’s time to find things to disagree with!
Scott has the tough job here. He’s putting out a hundred plus predictions with probabilities attached. All I’m doing is saying where I definitely disagree with him.
Epistemic Status: Writing this quickly and off the cuff seems more appropriate and fair. I’m going to explain my reasoning here while also not trying to do a bunch of research on these questions. In general, if something seems reasonable and say or imply that I’m holding, that’s not a strong ‘this is also my probability strongly held’ answer, it’s in the ballpark but likely weakly held.
1. Biden approval rating (as per 538) is greater than 50%: 80%
Biden’s approval rating...
Just like every Monday now, researchers in AI Alignment are invited for a coffee time, to talk about their research and what they're into.
Here is the link.
And here is the everytimezone time.
Small change for this second edition: the link to the walled garden now only works for AF members. Anyone who wants to come but isn't an AF member needs to go by me. I'll broadly apply the following criteria for admission:
I prefer to not allow people who might have been interesting but who I'm not sure will not derail the conversation, because this is supposed to be the place where AI Alignment researchers can talk about their current research without having to explain everything.
See you then!
As a teaser here is the visual version of Bayesian updating:
But in order to understand that figure we need to go through the prior and likelihood!
You find me standing in a basketball court ready to shoot some hoops. What do you believe about my performance before I take a shot?. There are no good Null hypothesis here unless you happen to have a lot of knowledge about the average human basket ball performance!, and even so, why do you care whether I am significant different from the average?, You can fall back to the new statistics which is almost as good as the Bayesian approach, it but does not answer what you should believe before I take a shot.
The Beta distribution is a popular prior for binary events, when the two parameter ( and...
You are an apprentice to Carver, the most successful butcher in your tiny, snow-swept village. Today, for the first time since you joined her, she is sending you to buy carcasses at the daily Auction.
(The (first-price, sealed-bid) Monster Carcass Auction began as a collective effort by local shopkeepers to divert Adventurers from trying to sell them random corpses, but has since become an integral part of the village economy, as well as the population’s main protein source.)
Carver thinks you should trust your instincts and bid however feels right. It’s an approach that’s served her well thus far – the record you’ve been compiling of her bids and subsequent sales attests to that, among other things – but you suspect a more data-driven approach would work better. And...