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Estimat (8 Identities)

by P. João
22nd Apr 2025
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I aim to reduce the complexity of self-evaluation for key moments, goals, habits, and tasks in incarcerated individuals. Beyond supporting individuals in prison, this system is meant for anyone bold enough to pursue extreme personal change — those ready to face the cost of becoming someone new. To achieve this, the System that enables discontinuous self-assessment based on the 8 Prime Identities model.

General Vision

This system is designed to support individuals navigating critical life shifts with a willingness to transform to assess and improve their psychological well-being through:

  • Identification of key moments (high/low motivation and satisfaction)

     
  • Classification using the 8 Identities model

     
  • Definition of personalized goals, habits, and tasks

     
  • Continuous tracking of progress

     

Model Overview:
 8 Prime Identities – LessWrong

 


 

Core System Components

  • Definition of 4 reference moments (high/low motivation and satisfaction)

     
  • Gradual definition of goals, habits, and tasks

     
  • Daily self-assessment prompts for new significant moments

     
  • Weighting system for moments and contributing factors

     
  • Classification system according to the 8 identities

     
  • XP (experience points) reward system

     

 


 

Level 1: Foundation

Phase 1 – Defining Reference Moments (4 weeks, 1h/week)

The user answers 4 key questions about moments with high variation in motivation or satisfaction. These can also be pre-filled during an onboarding assessment.

#

State

Trigger

Focus (Int/Ext)

Factor Type (Social / Info / Indiv / Physical)

Title (2-word)

1

High motivation

...

...

...

...

2

Low motivation

...

...

...

...

3

High satisfaction

...

...

...

...

4

Low satisfaction

...

...

...

...

Each reference moment is evaluated with:

  • What led to this moment that could help you repeat it?

     
  • Was the focus more personal or environmental?

     
  • Was it more social, informational, individual, or physical?

     
  • The app proposes a matching identity (from the 8).

     
  • User gives it a 2-word title.

     

Initial Weights:

  • High motivation/satisfaction: 1.0

     
  • Low motivation/satisfaction: 0.01
     

 

Phase 2 – Defining Goals, Habits, and Tasks (3 weeks, 1h/week)

Week 1: Goals
 “What 4 goals could help you repeat/improve the positive moments and avoid the negative ones?”
 → For each goal: identify which identities it strengthens.

Week 2: Habits
 “What 4 daily or weekly habits could help you reach these goals?”
 → Classify each by the identity it supports.

Week 3: Tasks
 “What 4 concrete tasks can move you toward your goals?”
 → Assign each to a related identity.

 


 

Phase 3 – Ongoing Self-Evaluation of New Key Moments

  • “Since last time, have you experienced moments of high or low motivation/satisfaction?”

     
  • “Describe the moment briefly.”

     
  • App analyzes and decomposes into factors.

     
  • For each factor: “How much did this contribute to the moment?” (scale 1–100)

     
  • App classifies according to identity model.

     

Reference Comparison System:

Compared to reference

Result

New weight

Previous reference weight

Much higher

Replace

1.0

0.33

Higher

Replace

1.0

0.5

Slightly higher

Replace

1.0

0.66

Lower

Keep reference

—

—

(Reverse weights for negative moments range from 0.01 to 0.1)

 


 

XP System (Experience Points)

  • Much higher/lower: +1 XP

     
  • Higher/lower: +0.75 XP

     
  • Slightly higher/lower: +0.5 XP

     
  • A bit higher/lower: +0.25 XP

     

 

Review System

  • After a reference change: “Would you like to update your goals?”

     
  • If yes: “Would you like to update your habits?”

     

 

Reports and Visualizations

  • Moment distribution by identity

     
  • Progress on goals, habits, and tasks

     
  • Motivation/satisfaction trends

     
  • Most/least developed identities
     

 

Level 2: Objective Metrics and Validation

  • Dynamic threshold: 75th percentile of previous records = “high”

     
  • Advanced phase: passive sensors (steps, HRV, HR) to compare self-reports

     
  • AI always asks for user confirmation on confidence of data

 

🧩 Invitation to Collaborate

If this project resonates with you —whether you're a developer interested in using technology for psychological empowerment, or a rationalist passionate about designing systems that reduce bias and increase agency— I'd love to collaborate.

For developers:
 Your skills could help turn this into a robust, elegant, privacy-respecting tool that can work even offline and adapt to the constraints of a prison environment. Whether you have experience with Flutter, or just love building systems that actually help people, there's space for you here.

For rationalists:
 This framework is heavily inspired by Bayesian thinking, entropy-based identity modeling, and meta-rationality. I'm looking for feedback, criticisms, and contributions to refine the identity model, scoring systems, or behavior tracking logic. Especially if you're into cognitive science, applied rationality, or system design — your insights are extremely welcome.

🔗 Where to start:
 I’m preparing a GitHub repo and lightweight onboarding materials (data model, design principles, UI wireframes). If you'd like to be part of this, just message me or comment on this draft — I’ll follow up with access and next steps.

🌱 Why this matters:
 People in prison often lack tools for introspection, self-guided growth, and feedback loops that don’t depend on external authority. Helping someone reflect more clearly on their motivations and priorities — even once a week — can shift their trajectory. Let’s build something that respects their autonomy while supporting their development.