At this point, it's clear to most Lesswrong users that Politics is the Mind Killer. There's a lot of good reasons for this in addition to the ones stated in the post, such as how each vote has an astronomically low chance of changing the outcome of an election, or how treating your vote like a Newcomb problem requires you to be extremely similar to the average voter (which you aren't and never will be, because you've observed Lesswrong at some point).

However, my world model (which unfortunately I'm not supposed to share) suggests that the situation should have become much worse than it was around 2014. That sounds pretty bad to me, since I remember being a radical leftist in 2014, and I knew many other leftists as well at the time (and haven't since 2017). And it was pretty damn bad.

I started reading about longtermism a few months before Trump was elected, so that was where I diverged, so I can only look back on my own memories from before mid-2016. I have a degree in public policy, so I at least know that the experience was much more intense for most people than it was for me.

What things have you witnessed or observed that indicate that Politics is killing more net thought than it did in the mid 2010s? As in, enough to reject the hypothesis that the situation could have gotten better or stayed the same, and what I'm seeing is merely random fluctuation in net-thought-killing?

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My main read is that the situation is hard to read in this regard. On one hand, the baseline public signaling seems to have intensified and decisionmaking seems to have degraded further. On the other hand (based largely on intuitions with too many inputs to list), my sense is that most likely explanations involve evaporative cooling of group beliefs and public-impression based preference cascades. I'd expect a tipping point of some kind but its exact nature and timing are harder to predict.