•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

~~A ~~~~black swan~~Black Swans~~is a high-impact event~~are huge risks that ~~is hard to predict (but not necessarily~~your model of ~~low probability). Also, an event that is not accounted for in a model, and therefore causes the model to break down when it occurs.~~

~~Considering some event a black swan ~~~~doesn'~~prediction didn't ~~give a leave~~~~ to not assign any probabilities, since making decisions depending on the plausibility of such event is still equivalent to assigning probabilities that make the expected utility calculation give those decisions.~~account for.

~~Risk-Free Bonds Aren't~~~~by~~~~Eliezer Yudkowsky~~~~White Swans Painted Black~~~~by Peter McCluskey~~

•

Created by Multicore at 3y

Considering some event a black swan doesn't give a leave to not assign any probabilities, since making decisions depending on the plausibility of such event is still equivalent to assigning probabilities that make the expected utility calculation give those decisions.

Vladimir_Nesov v0.0.6Sep 4th 2009 (+97/-27) Black swan can be of high probability. Undo revision 4054 by [[Special:Contributions/Z. M. Davis|Z. M. Davis]] ([[User talk:Z. M. Davis|Talk]]) 2

A **black swan** is a high-impact ~~low-probability event,~~event that is hard to predict (but not necessarily of low probability). Also, an event that is not accounted for in a model, ~~which~~and therefore causes the model to break down when it occurs.

A **black swan** is ~~an event that is hard to predict and has enormous impact. Also, an event that is~~a high-impact low-probability event, not accounted for in a model, ~~and~~which therefore causes the model to break down when it occurs.

A ~~Black~~**black swan** is an event that is hard to predict and has enormous impact. Also, an event that is not accounted for in a model, and therefore causes the model to ~~breakdown~~break down when it occurs.

A

~~Black Swans~~black swan~~are huge risks~~is a high-impact event that~~your~~is hard to predict (but not necessarily of low probability). Also, an event that is not accounted for in a model, and therefore causes the model~~of prediction didn~~to break down when it occurs.Considering some event a black swan doesn't

~~account for.~~give a leave to not assign any probabilities, since making decisions depending on the plausibility of such event is still equivalent to assigning probabilities that make the expected utility calculation give those decisions.External posts:See also