Black Swans

Applied to Notes on Caution by David Gross 1y ago

A Black Swansblack swan are huge risksis a high-impact event that youris hard to predict (but not necessarily of low probability). Also, an event that is not accounted for in a model, and therefore causes the model of prediction didnto break down when it occurs.

Considering some event a black swan doesn't account for.give a leave to not assign any probabilities, since making decisions depending on the plausibility of such event is still equivalent to assigning probabilities that make the expected utility calculation give those decisions.

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Applied to Risk-Free Bonds Aren't by Multicore 4y ago

A black swanBlack Swans is a high-impact eventare huge risks that is hard to predict (but not necessarilyyour model of low probability). Also, an event that is not accounted for in a model, and therefore causes the model to break down when it occurs.

Considering some event a black swan doesn'prediction didn't give a leave to not assign any probabilities, since making decisions depending on the plausibility of such event is still equivalent to assigning probabilities that make the expected utility calculation give those decisions.account for.

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Created by Multicore at 4y

Considering some event a black swan doesn't give a leave to not assign any probabilities, since making decisions depending on the plausibility of such event is still equivalent to assigning probabilities that make the expected utility calculation give those decisions.

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A black swan is a high-impact low-probability event,event that is hard to predict (but not necessarily of low probability). Also, an event that is not accounted for in a model, whichand therefore causes the model to break down when it occurs.

A black swan is an event that is hard to predict and has enormous impact. Also, an event that isa high-impact low-probability event, not accounted for in a model, andwhich therefore causes the model to break down when it occurs.

A Blackblack swan is an event that is hard to predict and has enormous impact. Also, an event that is not accounted for in a model, and therefore causes the model to breakdownbreak down when it occurs.

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