I Don't Know

Created by PeerInfinity at 10mo

In order to even phrase a question, you need to know something about a domain. The words "I don't know" might be a convenient shorthand to express to the unenlightened that you don't know very much in particular—that you don't think you can do better than they can, or than your ignorance prior. But in real life, you are constantly making decisions under uncertainty: the null plan is still a plan, refusing to choose is itself a choice, and by your choices, you implicitly take bets at some odds, whether or not you explicitly conceive of yourself as doing so.

In order to even phrase a question, you need to know something about a domain. The words "I don't know" might be a convenient shorthand to express to the unenlightened that you don't know very much in particular—that you don't think you can do better than your igoranceignorance prior. But in real life, you are constantly making decisions under uncertainty: the null plan is still a plan, refusing to choose is itself a choice, and by your choices, you implicitly take bets at some odds, whether or not you explicitly conceive of yourself as doing so.

In order to even phrase a question, you need to know something about a domain. The words "I don't know" might be a convenient shorthand to express to the unenlightened that you don't know very much in particular—that you don't think you can do better than your igorance prior. But in real life, you are constantly making decisions under uncertainty: the null plan is still ana plan, refusing to choose is itself a choice, and by your choices, you implicitly take bets at some odds, whether or not you explicitly conceive of yourself as doing so.

Apparently these words haveIn order to even phrase a different meaningquestion, you need to Bayesians, than to non-Bayesians. Refusing to accept actually knowingknow at least something about a statementdomain. The words "I don't know" might be a convenient shorthand to express to the unenlightened that you don't know very much in particular—that you don't think you can do better than your igorance prior. But in real life, you are constantly making decisions under uncertainty: the null plan is similarstill an plan, refusing to committingchoose is itself a fallacychoice, and by your choices, you implicitly take bets at some odds, whether or not you explicitly conceive of gray.yourself as doing so.

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Apparently these words have a different meaning to Bayesians, than to non-Bayesians. Refusing to accept actually knowing at least something about a statement is similar to committing a fallacy of gray.