Prediction Markets

Applied to Stop-gradients lead to fixed point predictions by Johannes Treutlein at 9d

Applied to [Crosspost] ACX 2022 Prediction Contest Results by Noosphere89 at 12d

Applied to Ad Fraud Detection Prediction Market by Raemon at 19d

Applied to Prediction Markets for Science by Ruby at 1mo

Applied to Verbal parity: What is it and how to measure it? + an edited version of "Against John Searle, Gary Marcus, the Chinese Room thought experiment and its world" by philosophybear at 1mo

Applied to Two Truths and a Prediction Market by Ruby at 1mo

Applied to Will Manifold Markets/Metaculus have built-in support for reflective latent variables by 2025? by Ruby at 2mo

Applied to Notes on an Experiment with Markets by RobertM at 2mo

Applied to We need better prediction markets by Noosphere89 at 3mo

Applied to Information Markets 2: Optimally Shaped Reward Bets by eva_ at 3mo

Applied to Is there a good way to award a fixed prize in a prediction contest? by Ruby at 3mo

Applied to Information Markets by Noosphere89 at 3mo

Applied to AI Research Program Prediction Markets by Noosphere89 at 4mo

Applied to How To Make Prediction Markets Useful For Alignment Work by Noosphere89 at 4mo

Applied to Interesting predictions on manifold.markets by RobertM at 4mo

Applied to Media Publication Governed by Prediction Markets by RobertM at 4mo

Applied to Ambiguity in Prediction Market Resolution is Harmful by Ruby at 4mo

Applied to Postmortem: Trying out for Manifold Markets by Milli | Martin at 5mo

Applied to Pondering the paucity of volcanic profanity post Pompeii perusal by CraigMichael at 5mo