Reality Is Normal

From the old discussion page:

Talk:Reality is normal

I'm not so sure it's really true that "not one unusual thing has ever happened". There have been a lot of opportunities for extremely improbable events to take place. There are about six billion people on Earth; if a "miracle" is an event that has a one in a billion chance of happening to someone on a given day, then you can expect an average of six miracles to happen every day. And the universe itself is both very big and very old. It is indeed true that not one impossible thing has ever happened, but I'd be very surprised if merely "unusual" events are forbidden. --CronoDAS 21:31, 13 November 2009 (UTC)

Of course it's not literally true; it's a poetic way of saying that things are normal or unusual only insofar as they actually occur frequently or infrequently, that the point of expectations is to predict reality, and so insofar as your expectations are wrong, they need to be recalibrated. --Zack M. Davis 22:46, 13 November 2009 (UTC)

Created by Zack_M_Davis at 2y

If at any point some truth should seem shocking or bizarre, it's your brain that labels it as such; reality simply is what it is. Surprise is the measure of a poor hypothesis; a good model puts probability mass on outcomes that are more likely to actually occur. If your model of reality consistently makes bad predictions—predictions — if the the real world seems utterly strange or surreal to your intuitions—intuitions — then it's your intuitions that need to change; the world isn't going to. Reality is normal.

See also

If at any point some truth should seem shocking or bizarre, it's your brain that labels it as such; reality simply is what it is. Surprise is the measure of a poor hypothesis. Ahypothesis; a good model puts probability mass on outcomes that are more likely to actually occur, ifoccur. If your model of reality consistently makes bad predictions—if the the real world seems utterly strange or surreal to your intuitions—then it's your intuitions that need to change; the world isn't going to. Reality is normal.

If at any point some truth should seem shocking or bizarre, it's your brain that labels it as such; reality simply is what it is. Surprise is the measure of a poor hypothesis; ahypothesis. A good model puts probability mass on outcomes that are more likely to actually occur, if your model of reality consistently makes bad predictions—if the the real world seems utterly strange or surreal to your intuitions—then it's your intuitions that need to change; the world isn't going to. Reality is normal.

If at any point some truth should seem shocking or bizarre, it's your brain that labels it as such; reality simply is what it is. Surprise is the measure of a poor hypothesis; a good model puts probability mass on outcomes that are more likely to actually occur, if your model of reality consistently makes bad predictions—if the the real world seems utterly strange or surreal to your intuitions—then it's your intuitions that need to change; the world isn't going to. Reality is normal.normal.

If at any point some truth should seem shocking or bizarre, it's your brain that labels it as such; reality simply is what it is. Surprise is the measure of a poor hypothesis; a good model puts probability mass on outcomes that are more likely to actually occur, if your model of reality consistently makes bad predictions—if the the real world seems utterly strange or surreal to your intuitions—then it's your intuitions that need to change; the world isn't going to. Reality is normal.

Blog posts

Think Like Reality by Eliezer Yudkowsky