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Applied to Are healthy choices effective for improving live expectancy anymore? by Christopher King 1mo ago

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Applied to Formalizing the "AI x-risk is unlikely because it is ridiculous" argument by Christopher King 1mo ago

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Applied to What is your timelines for ADI (artificial disempowering intelligence)? by Christopher King 2mo ago

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One approach is extrapolating from past data. Moore's Law, which says that the number of transistors on an integrated circuit doubles every two years, is the classic example. Bela Nagy's performance curve database, perhaps the most systematic attempt at such extrapolation, has found similar trends in many technologies. Ray Kurzweil is a well-known advocate of exponential technological growth models. On the other hand, an exponential curve is indistinguishable from the early stages of a logistic curve that eventually approaches a ~~ceiling.~~ceiling, and all real world exponentials fail to continue their growth.

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Applied to AI Timelines via Cumulative Optimization Power: Less Long, More Short by jacob_cannell 8mo ago

One approach is extrapolating from past data. Extrapolating an exponential quickly. leads to very large changes. Moore's Law, which says that the number of transistors on an integrated circuit doubles every two years, is the classic example. Bela Nagy's performance curve database, perhaps the most systematic attempt at such extrapolation, has found similar trends in many technologies. Ray Kurzweil is a well-known advocate of exponential technological growth models. On the other hand, an exponential curve is indistinguishable from the early stages of a logistic curve that eventually approaches a ceiling, and all real world exponentials fail to continue their growth. Consequently any attempt to extrapolate exponential growth requires entertaining all the mechanisms that might curtail growth.