Immunity to perverse manipulation, self-scepticism, bounded impact
Feb 1, 20180
Edit: found the new post and it doesn't suffer from any of these =P
There's a few calculation errors:
One in the paragrahp "Half a chance of winning the 1:9 lottery": v utility is calculated as 0.525 but should be 0.275: 50% chance v is chosen as utility function × ( 10% chance of lottery win × v utility set to 1 point with the lottery money + 90% chance of no lottery win × v utility stays at 0.5 ) = 0.5 × ( 0.1 × 1 + 0.9 × 0.5 ) = 0.275
This doesn't change anything for the argumentation, but the other error actually turns against the conclusion that "the probability flows