https://c4ss.org/content/50066 Piece about game theoretic coordination, existential risk, and the maximization of freedom. Full-text copied below: Longview Anarchism: Transcending the Existential Threat of Freedom Emmi Bevensee | Support this author on Patreon | September 28th, 2017 Skin as Thick as Bark As asinine, cultish leaders fascistically toy with the notion...
So I've been thinking about Bayesian probability and paradigm shifts. One of the early examples that Price published after discovering Bayes' theorem (after Bayes died) was of someone who, upon awakening for the first time with no other information on cosmology, if they knew Bayes theorem, could then update their...
https://c4ss.org/content/50066
Piece about game theoretic coordination, existential risk, and the maximization of freedom. Full-text copied below:
Longview Anarchism: Transcending the Existential Threat of Freedom
Emmi Bevensee | Support this author on Patreon | September 28th, 2017
Skin as Thick as Bark
As asinine, cultish leaders fascistically toy with the notion of nuclear warfare, we are reminded yet again of the fragility of human life. That humans have advanced as far as we have is remarkable. It reminds me of the feeling of awe I have when realizing that we limited humans drive hurtling boxes of steel around and don’t kill each more often than we do. Really, brava humanity. And yet, on a long time scale, we... (read 2986 more words →)
My mindset was that this was a social site rather than a publishing depot so I didn't put the effort into editing. But I'm also new to the forums (although longterm reader of the extended LW universe) so I'm happy to be proven wrong if need be.
My intent was less to imply p(the sun will rise forever), but rather that the p(the sun will rise tommorrow) will eventually be very wrong. Of course as you mention the sun would start to look weird which should trigger uncertainty, but that is more the particulars of the example, than the spirit of the thought experiment behind it imo.
I'm amazed that no one critiqued the most glaring error- that the sun will not supernova but rather turn into a red giant and then a white dwarf and that you would be not be able to notice it not rising because you'd be dead. X )
So I've been thinking about Bayesian probability and paradigm shifts. One of the early examples that Price published after discovering Bayes' theorem (after Bayes died) was of someone who, upon awakening for the first time with no other information on cosmology, if they knew Bayes theorem, could then update their probability that the sun would rise again the next day, each day they saw it rise again. So with time, as they see the sun rise more and more times, they become more and more 'certain' that it will rise again the next day (ie their priors become higher).
However, not having any knowledge of the universe or physics, they are unaware that... (read 223 more words →)