AidanGoth

Economists sometimes study revealed preferences, which are preferences that we can infer from choices, e.g. when given the choice between an apple or an orange, if I choose an apple, then I have revealed a preference for an apple over an orange. I'm wondering about the revealed preferences of RL...

This document explores and develops methods for forecasting extreme outcomes, such as the maximum of a sample of n independent and identically distributed random variables. I was inspired to write this by Jaime Sevilla’s recent post with research ideas in forecasting and, in particular, his suggestion to write an accessible...