Your post gestures at how econ has obfuscated the idea of heterogenous labor and capital and transaction costs. Labor and capital isn't homogeneous and interchangeable costlessly in the real world, but it's a good assumption for various macro models.

When we’re talking about AGI, we’re talking about creating a new intelligent species on Earth, one which will eventually be faster, smarter, better-coordinated, and more numerous than humans.

I would be interested in a post about how exactly we would get there--we would have to create this thing right? There would be demand for this thing to help us be more productive/better leisure, and why are we assuming that one day it would suddenly outcompete us or suddenly turn against us? 

I grew up in fundamentalist circles and was in (foreign) church plants for ~5 years of my life.

1. The founder is very young, often under 25.
2. He might work alone or with a founding team, but when he tells the story of the founding it will always have him at the center.
3. He has no credentials for this business. 

Founders at foreign plants are usually older, typically in their 30s or 40s. Some are even in their 50s or 60s, arriving as empty nesters. Supporter attrition is extremely high; our church turned over about every ~2 years. About 50% of foreign missionaries leave after 2 years, another 1/2 of the remaining leave after 4, and another 1/2 after 7 years. So only about 1/8 of people stay long-term at one of these harder plants that take about 10 years to start. So many fail before they even truly get underway, especially in the most hostile areas. Mission orgs almost always try to send a team to a new area, because planting is extremely lonely and isolating. When the pastors I met talk about the history of the church, they often mention other planters etc. and give themselves a much lower profile (seems reasonable that podcast guests aren't representative of the pastor at one of these plants).

Not all foreign missionaries are seminary-educated, but most pastors are regardless of denomination. Many were actively involved in the church, had some sort of sending/validation by other members, and some were even pastors of their former church. Churches usually start in living rooms and there's often no church building that you could take over. Oftentimes you rent space from a building; during the week you can use it as an office or something.

Generally unconcerned with negative externalities

This wasn't my experience; many people expressed sadness/wishes that scandals like Mars Hill didn't happen. Leadership also take precautions against causing scandals etc., but each plant varies but most in foreign places are fairly upright and try to do good in general. 

The most useful function [of a mission team] mentioned was mowing the pastor’s own lawn, to free up his time. 

Mission teams are often criticized for their effectiveness even within Christian circles because they take a lot of resources from the hosting church (providing food, place to sleep, spend time with them, etc.) and the output is often manual labor/construction instead of trying to build relationships with locals because of time constraints or language barriers. It's sometimes comforting for the receiving church though; it can be lonely at a plant. An argument for mission teams is that it "strengthens the faith" of the people going and they forge closer relationships with each other, which leads to lower attrition rates from the church on the margin.

iirc @habryka had a prompt that worked pretty well to get GPT (I forget which version) to become a lesswronger that could yell at you for bad takes

dropping another half seems tempting, but I'm afraid I'll be more likely to be overaggressive in filtering and have too many false negatives perhaps. But the probability of each person working out is just so low that maybe it's fine? Not sure about the math on this, I could be wrong

The 15-min call is a good idea, will start implementing, thanks!

as a (nerdy) girl who just got on the dating apps in SF, im getting flooded with interest and im now stressed out by all the people i could meet. i got something like 15 hinge matches and 10 from feeld today, about 20% make it past my preliminary filter but that's still a lot of ppl to be talking to concurrently! 

so many future filtering steps, this is just the start of the funnel; there are ppl im more excited to meet but oftentimes im ambivalent. it's getting to the point where im scheduling dates ~a week out and declining dates to go to house parties etc. to hangout with friends, bc for now friends > finding someone to date. what's the optimal filtering strategy to be doing here, how should you schedule ppl to exit the market as early as possible without hurting other's feelings unnecessarily (or filtering too aggressively and making false negatives)??

I got the vaccine (2 doses) for it as a kid but it's only demonstrated to last 10-20 years, and I'm now past the 20-year mark. I'm now seeing claims of a lifetime but can't find studies. 

This just seems confusing to the average person. P(Doom|AI) or P(Doom|~AI) are both greater than zero in this case and seems easier to discuss

damn being homeschooled the whole way (we didn't do co-ops either) really meant that I didn't catch any of the typical diseases that kids get like scarlet fever and mono until grad school. Still haven't caught HFM or chicken-pox and I don't look forward to that. There might be some argument made for getting these diseases at a later stage in life creates more suffering because your time is more valuable + weird complications can occur the older you are. Anyways, just wanted to rant a bit; this isn't an argument against homeschooling.