Note: This article was primarily written for a less technical and less AI-savvy audience than LessWrong readers. If you're already familiar with upcoming AI developments, you'll probably find Part 2 (the second half of the article) more engaging.

We keep hearing that AI is going to replace a bunch of jobs in the next few years, but no one really knows exactly how that’s going to happen. When will this start, and which exact jobs are in danger? What’s the plan for dealing with this? Right now, it seems like people are vaguely aware of this threat but continuing on with business as normal. If this is really coming in the next 24 months, shouldn’t we be a little more worried, and have a few more answers to these questions?

That’s what I hoped to figure out when I started writing this article. I wanted to cut through the vague proclamations and actually lay out a bit of a clearer path for what’s coming. Other than feeling like society as a whole was not treating this issue with the seriousness it deserved, my motivation was also personal; I wanted to know, how long can I continue doing the kind of work I am doing?

This article is broken down into two parts:

Part 1: What will AI actually be able to do in the next few years? (this post)
Current AI systems clearly aren’t ready to replace most of our jobs, so when will they be ready?
Part 2: So…will we lose our jobs?
Once we understand what AI will actually be able to do, we’ll look at what that means for jobs and the white-collar labor market as a whole. Will you lose your job? I’ll walk through some specific scenarios that are likely about to play out.

This article focuses only on white-collar jobs, as that is the main segment of the workforce that AI will impact in the next few years.

If you are already familiar with most of the technological changes coming within the next few years, I suggest skipping to Part 2, as that may be more interesting to you.

Part 1: What will AI actually be able to do in the next few years?

Currently, our AI tools have many limitations, such as:

They don’t have long-term memory
We can only interact with them through chat interfaces, or in other narrow ways. We can’t interact with them in the same way we might with another coworker, i.e. through meetings, emails, Slack/Teams messages, etc.
They still can’t use a computer the same way humans can
They are still limited in their understanding of ou

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