aphyer

I am Andrew Hyer, currently living in New Jersey and working in New York (in the finance industry).

Wiki Contributions

Comments

On the object-level of your particular case, I don't see how you've ended up rate-limited.  The post of yours that I think you're talking about is currently at +214 karma, which makes it quite strange that your related comments are being rate-limited - I don't understand how that algorithm works but I think that seems very odd.  Is it counting downvotes but not upvotes, so that +300 and -100 works out to rate-limiting?  That would be bizarre.

In the general case, however, I'm very much on board with rate-limiting people who are heavily net downvoted, and I think that referring to this as 'censorship' is misleading.  When I block a spam caller, or decide not to invite someone who constantly starts loud angry political arguments to a dinner party, it seems very strange to say that I am 'censoring' them.  I agree that this can lead to feedback loops that punish unpopular opinions, but that seems like a smaller cost than communities having to listen to every spammer/jerk who wants to rant at them.

The 'full repayment' part is only sort of true, in a similar way to what happened with MTGOX, due to bankruptcy claims being USD-denominated.

Suppose that:

  • You owe customers 100 Bitcoin and $1M.
  • You have only half of that, 50 Bitcoins and $500k. 
  • The current price of Bitcoin is $20k.

You are clearly insolvent.  You will enter bankruptcy, and the bankruptcy estate will say 'you have $3M in liabilities', since you owe $1M in cash and $2M in bitcoin.

Suppose that the price of bitcoin then recovers to $50k.  You now have $3M in assets, since you have $500k in cash and $2.5M in bitcoin!  You can 'fully repay' everyone!  Hooray!

Of course, anyone who held a Bitcoin with you is getting back much less than a bitcoin in value, but since the bankruptcy court is evaluating your claims as USD liabilities you don't need to care about that.

This 'full repayment' is plausibly still important from a legal or a PR perspective, but e.g. this part:

there is typically a legal fight over whether a company was insolvent at the time of the investment or that the investment led to insolvency. If every FTX creditor stands to get 100 cents on the dollar, the clawback cases that don’t involve fraud wouldn’t serve much of a financial purpose and may be more difficult to argue, some lawyers say

is better thought of as 'our legal system may get confused by exchange rates and pretend FTX was always solvent' rather than as 'FTX was actually always solvent'.

Competition should improve meth and reading outcomes here.

Is this a typo, or a snarky comment on reducing student drug use?

We don't care about how many FLOPs something has.  We care about how fast it can actually solve things.

As far as I know, in every case where we've successfully gotten AI to do a task at all, AI has done that task far far faster than humans.  When we had computers that could do arithmetic but nothing else, they were still much faster at arithmetic than humans.  Whatever your view on the quality of recent AI-generated text or art, it's clear that AI is producing it much much faster than human writers or artists can produce text/art.

This change would not get rid of the need for researchers to have a non-research skillset to secure funding.  It would just switch the required non-research skillset from 'wrangling money out of grant committees' to 'wrangling positions out of administrators'.  Your mileage may vary as to which of those two is less dysfunctional.

Keep quiet about it! If the FDA hears about this we won't be allowed to conduct surgeries any more!

Thanks for making this!

It looks like Simon was right about the effects of Pi and Murphy being linear/cubic in isolation: I modeled everything as logarithmic because it let me use simple linear regression more easily, and ended up just hitting pi/murphy with regressions until I got something that fit acceptably.  

(I am surprised that I got such good fits off things like 1/(7-Murphy), I wonder if that fits well with the log version of the chart for some reason).

I think there was a bit of a missed opportunity in not having there be sneaky interactions/hypersphere effects.  This was a scenario where it would have been extremely fair to have an effect that triggered based on a threshold not of e.g. Latitude but of something horrendous like cos(Latitude)*cos(Shortitude)*cos(Deltitude): in any other scenario an effect like that might be overcomplicated, but here I think it would have been perfectly natural and made sense when uncovered.  I was looking for spheric-type effects, but the only thing like that was Longitude's effect being sine-wavey.

They can't weigh in, they're dead!

Hm.  I'm trying to predict log of performance (technically negative log of performance) rather than performance directly, but I'd imagine you are too?

If you plot your residuals against pi/murphy, like the graphs I have above, do you see no remaining effect?

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