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Prediction Markets Have an Anthropic Bias to Deal With

TL;DR: Whether Ćirković et al.'s Anthropic Shadow is philosophically legitimate or not, it contains a totally relevant intuition for profiting off prediction markets: if you're dead when the taxman comes, it doesn't matter how much you owe. As such, there's either an opportunity to make money by betting against x-risk-correlated...

Jun 28, 20257

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Writing at mistakesweremade.substack.com

6

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3y

Prediction Markets Have an Anthropic Bias to Deal With

TL;DR: Whether Ćirković et al.'s Anthropic Shadow is philosophically legitimate or not, it contains a totally relevant intuition for profiting off prediction markets: if you're dead when the taxman comes, it doesn't matter how much you owe. As such, there's either an opportunity to make money by betting against x-risk-correlated...

Jun 28, 20257

Prediction Markets Have an Anthropic Bias to Deal With

ar-sht

8mo

TL;DR: Whether Ćirković et al.'s Anthropic Shadow is philosophically legitimate or not, it contains a totally relevant intuition for profiting off prediction markets: if you're dead when the taxman comes, it doesn't matter how much you owe. As such, there's either an opportunity to make money by betting against x-risk-correlated events, or (once everyone's figured this out) prediction markets will systematically underestimate x-risk-correlated outcomes. In the post, I summarize a bit of the general debate about the Anthropic Shadow; then I present a toy model for the effect described, and a generalized version. I also list some candidate x-risk-correlated markets that could be vulnerable to the Anthropic Bias. Finally, I bring up... (read 3280 more words →)

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