What I mean is that the if the AMM estimates the probability at .75, it should charge .75 for a marginal YES share, by law of expected utility. I don't think a different probability function should alter the probabulity theory, just change the pricing curve.
If you could link me to these similar derivations I'd be interested to read them, I mostly wrote and worked through this because I couldn't find any existing ones from first principles and was sure it would be possible.
Prerequisite: basic familiarity with what a prediction market is
So you want to run a prediction market. You need a way for people to trade shares. What are your options?
If you were making a prediction market from scratch, you'd probably come up with a Central Limit Order Book (CLOB). Traders post BUY and SELL orders, stating what they're willing to buy and sell, and at what price, and you record these orders in your book.
When someone wants to trade, and doesn't want to wait... (read 2098 more words →)
I was inspired by this post and hope an image version of it will be appreciated:
Well, I don't think bear fat with honey and salt specifically would do well, due largely to supply problems. Lard is fairly neutral, but you might get good results with tallow, schmaltz, or duck fat. Another factor is that I'd expect it'd be something that'd get unpalatable if you ate a lot of it, because it's so fatty and the flavors are so strong, but if you only ate a little with crackers it tastes really good.
Did you ever end up doing this? I think this is a good idea.
I find it rather strange to list "Audere Snyder" as his name on the wiki—"Audere" is an online username rather than something he was changing his name to, he still went by Max/Maximilian to his close friends (Source: i am his ex). It'd be kind of like listing my name as "ToasterLightning Nightingale", either "Audere" or "Maximilian Snyder" would work instead.
....I know someone named Chase Novinha? I don't think it's the same person, though.
Edit: Confirmed same person, slimepriestess has said they are "safe and accounted for," and are one of the cofounders of its alignment company.
Oh, I don't mean to derail it, I'm just saying that if I pull the lever and pull it back, I still pulled it, so Omega will make their choice based off of that.
Many of these are solveable via the strategy "pull the lever and then quickly pull it back"
Yes, but it just affects how liquidity is allocated, and it doesn't just affect how the AMM updates, it affects how users trade as well since they respond to that, either way they'd want to bet to their true probability. So changing the pricing curve is largely a matter of market dynamics and incentives, rather than actually affecting the probabilistic structure.