1. "OpenAI has told investors it expects to reach $125B in revenue by 2029 and $174B by 2030. OpenAI expects to serve 3B monthly active users by 2030, with 900M DAUs." (from sacra.com; original source seems to be theinformation.com, but it is behind a paywall). 2. FAANG performance in 2024...
Epistemic status: My partner and I did 3 premortems for our romantic relationship and we found it surprisingly helpful. Summary 1. My partner and I did 3 premortems for our romantic relationship. 2. The procedure is: define prompts; collect failures; independently estimate risk of each; align on estimates; brainstorm solutions....
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That is to say there are intermediate stages between "AI is useless as anything other than a tool" to "AI can completely replace all knowledge workers". Given how fast capabilities are growing (METR's results on this suggest practicable task lengths double every 4-6 months), these intermediate stages will be shortish...
I agree with this, but I expect these intermediate stages to be in the past by 2030. E.g. in "Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks" METR predicts (see "A sensitivity analysis of the extrapolated date..." graph) that in 2027-2031 AI will be able to perform with 50% success rate tasks taking a human 1 work-month. Even when AI can do tasks equivalent to 1 day of work, there is a huge incentive to use it. If we assume task duration doubling every 7 months, 1 work-day = 8 work-hours should be reached in 2 years.
You understood my question correctly.
I like your hypothesis. I can add one more reason to behave this way - managing expectations. In your example if you make $1 trillion revenue prediction, that would catch attention & the market might incorporate that prediction early. But if then for some reason the real revenue is somewhat below the prediction, the expectation wouldn't be met.
On the other hand, if you raise money, you likely want your valuation to be as high as possible.
There was a discussion of this on Reddit one week ago.
They have more examples.
The weak hypothesis was that there is a mismatch between request/response, i.e. people get responses to other people requests. This definitely disagrees with you being able to reproduce this, it sounds implausible that so many people ask about terrorist organizations all the time and overall would have been a huge security risk for OpenAI users.
https://www.librechat.ai/ is an opensource frontend to LLM APIs. It has prompt templates, which can be triggered by typing /keyword.
https://aider.chat/ can do this & even run tests. The results are fed back to the LLM for corrections. It also uses your existing codebase and autoapplies the diff.
In librechat, I sometimes tell the AI to summarize all the corrections I've made and then make a new template out of it.
This reminded me about https://www.businessinsider.com/hiring-ambulances-to-beat-moscow-traffic-2013-3 - in Russia one could actually illegally hire a fake ambulance as a taxi:
Epistemic status: My partner and I did 3 premortems for our romantic relationship and we found it surprisingly helpful.
Premortem (aka Murphyjitsu) is "a process for bulletproofing your strategies and plans". (CFAR handbook). The idea is to first think how your plans can fail, then brainstorm ways to prevent these failures. For a deeper introduction please see Murphyjitsu section in the CFAR... (read 619 more words →)
[MENTOR] Investing (mostly passive ETF for wealth preservation).
[MENTOR] Django, including deployment on VPS.
[MENTOR] Switching to Dvorak from QWERTY and deciding whether you should do this.
[MENTOR] Using computer in a more sustainable for your body way (wrists, eyes, back).
[MENTOR] Feeling happier (not an expert, but can point to many resources).
[APPRENTICE] I am curious about "Agency", but I would love to know more about what kind of exercises/messages you have in mind. I am passionate about self improvement and growth. I do catch myself occasionally not accepting some rational argument for emotional reasons or not working on the most impactful problem. I would love to improve this. Happy to switch to private messages, but I thought that others might have similar questions.
[APPRENTICE]: I would love to be an apprentice / receive advice about bootstrapping online businesses (non-exclusive example: Software-as-a-Service). I find this much more intrinsically rewarding and interesting than mine current 'conventional' job (especial being able to focus on areas I find important and to be less driven by external incentives). Ideally I would like to boostrap myself into working full time on my side projects (that is completely replace my current source of income).
I am a backend developer learning frontend these days (React + css frameworks). I think I already have technical skills to make and run services. My weakest area is analyzing the market and demand / finding problems to solve. Also I suspect that I might be too conservative and not trying out enough ideas or committing to ideas without seeing strong demand.
I already have users on a free product I made and even received a donation.
Is this tiredness periodic? I experience something similar and my very weak suspicion is that it is non-24-hour sleep–wake disorder. Basically I start feeling tired even in the morning, but I am able to stay up all night without any problem. Going to bed late for a couple days seems to resolve it. Unfortunately I don't know a good way to verify my hypothesis - I thought about measuring my base temperature to see how the peak shifts, but the device costs $300 and I have such tiredness only a couple times a year, so I didn't bother.